Value
5.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.5 |
| PEG | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.6x
- ▸PEG: 4.20
KAI · Why this verdict
Why Kadant (KAI) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kadant is an industrial machinery maker with 23% growth, a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and a 9/9 Piotroski score, trading 15.8% below its analyst target, though it sits in a confirmed downtrend with 12% short interest and a full forward multiple.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 23% year over year, with the June 2026 quarter at $312.9M versus $255.3M a year earlier, and the company ranks as an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue reaches the estimated $302.1M next quarter and stays above $300M. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimated next-quarter revenue is below the latest quarter, so growth may be partly timing or acquisition-driven. | ||
Kadant beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +19.1% and $3.42 versus a $2.77 estimate in August 2026. Earnings | The November 3 report beats the consensus estimate for a fifth straight quarter. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAfter repeated large beats, expectations may rise and the stock could fall on a smaller beat. | ||
At $262.39 the stock is 15.8% below the $303.88 analyst target, with 5.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.9. Targets | Price moves toward the $303.88 analyst target as earnings continue to beat. | →Stable |
| CounterForward P/E of 19.4x and PEG of 4.03 are not cheap, so the valuation leaves limited room for disappointment. | ||
Price is below a 200-day average sloping down 1.1% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, although on-balance volume is rising and RSI is 43. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average stops falling and price reclaims it while volume accumulation continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA recovering setup after a death cross can fail, and short interest is 12%, signalling skepticism. | ||
Quality is solid at 6.3/10 with a 9/9 Piotroski score, and the dividend is considered safe, with the company a dividend aristocrat yielding 0.6%. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is raised again and quality stays above 6. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReturn on equity and margins score only mid-range, and a 0.6% yield offers little income cushion. | ||
Revenue is growing 23% year over year, with the June 2026 quarter at $312.9M versus $255.3M a year earlier, and the company ranks as an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the estimated $302.1M next quarter and stays above $300M.
CounterEstimated next-quarter revenue is below the latest quarter, so growth may be partly timing or acquisition-driven.
Kadant beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +19.1% and $3.42 versus a $2.77 estimate in August 2026.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 3 report beats the consensus estimate for a fifth straight quarter.
CounterAfter repeated large beats, expectations may rise and the stock could fall on a smaller beat.
At $262.39 the stock is 15.8% below the $303.88 analyst target, with 5.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.9.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $303.88 analyst target as earnings continue to beat.
CounterForward P/E of 19.4x and PEG of 4.03 are not cheap, so the valuation leaves limited room for disappointment.
Price is below a 200-day average sloping down 1.1% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, although on-balance volume is rising and RSI is 43.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average stops falling and price reclaims it while volume accumulation continues.
CounterA recovering setup after a death cross can fail, and short interest is 12%, signalling skepticism.
Quality is solid at 6.3/10 with a 9/9 Piotroski score, and the dividend is considered safe, with the company a dividend aristocrat yielding 0.6%.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is raised again and quality stays above 6.
CounterReturn on equity and margins score only mid-range, and a 0.6% yield offers little income cushion.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 5.0 |
| Op margin | 6.7 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.1 |
| EPS growth | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 9.3 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.5>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.47
Upside
+14.5%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 7.4 (strongest), but EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.4, Catalyst at 7.2, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 4.4, Insider at 5.0, and Value at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.47 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 8% from the current 23%.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the November 3 report.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifStock price falls below the $247.97 stop level from the current $262.39.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Recovery
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.0 from the current 5.6.
- P5Solid Quality Dividend Safety
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 9.