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ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.Sell5.3·$256.55+1.65%
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Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $256.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products and equipment with 88 divisions in 49 countries. As of December 31, 2025, the Company employed approximately 43,000 people.

$256.55-1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#29 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.05%
IncomeYield2.55%(5y avg 2.26%)Payout58.77%sustainable
Stop $248.09Target $252.32(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$274.54+7.0%16 analysts
$252.32our TP
$256.55price
$274.54mean
$219
$317

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $256.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10

Recent Developments — Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K May 22, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 19, 2026, Randall J. Scheuneman, Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer and Principal Accounting Officer of Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.4
P/E (Fwd)20.7
Mkt Cap$72.6B
EV/EBITDA17.1
Profit Mgn19.3%
ROE96.8%
Rev Growth4.6%
Beta1.03
Dividend2.55%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV45%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-23Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Delaware | | 1-4797 | | 36-1258310 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) | | (Commission File No.) | | (I.R.S.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.6
52w Position
7.0
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVE8K FLAG 1.02Momentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $242.05Resistance $257.47

Price Targets

$248
$252
A.Upside-1.6%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ITW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $256.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $248.09. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the ITW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $252.32 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $248.09. Stop-loss: $248.09.

What are the risks of investing in ITW?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5.

Is ITW overvalued or undervalued?

Illinois Tool Works Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.4 (forward 20.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ITW?

26 analysts cover ITW with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $275.

What does Illinois Tool Works Inc. do?The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products...

The Company's ticker symbol is ITW. The Company is a global manufacturer of a diversified range of industrial products and equipment with 88 divisions in 49 countries. As of December 31, 2025, the Company employed approximately 43,000 people.

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