Value
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.50
ITW · Why this verdict
Why Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.4 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 97%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 71% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $199,880 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 9.3 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 3.2 |
| volatility | 8.3 |
| put call | 9.0 |
| implied vol | 6.5 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 255.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
-0.45
Upside
-2.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.45 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.5, Momentum at 6.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 3.9, Growth at 4.1, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.