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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.03: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals is a fully integrated commercial-stage RNA-targeted medicine company with seven marketed medicines including SPINRAZA (SMA), TRYNGOLZA (FCS), DAWNZERA (HAE), and WAINUA (ATTRv-PN). Revenue comes from independent product sales (TRYNGOLZA, DAWNZERA in U.S.),... Read more

$75.03+18.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#53 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $70.27Target $88.75(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$98.61+31.4%23 analysts
$88.75our TP
$75.03price
$98.61mean
$47
$130

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.03: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Val5.4Qual1.9Grw10.0Mom4.1Sent7.4Ins3.0Peer3.4Tech5.4Risk5.25.3OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Biogen
Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-115.8
Mkt Cap$12.4B
EV/EBITDA-38.4
Profit Mgn-30.9%
ROE-67.6%
Rev Growth87.0%
Beta0.40
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$55-26.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyBiogen
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on our collaborations with Biogen for the development and commercialization of SPINRAZA and QALSODY.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 5.02LOW
    Two directors (B. Lynne Parshall and Joseph H. Wender) retiring at 2026 Annual Meeting; Peter N. Reikes appointed to Board March 9, 2026. Routine board transitions; no disagreements cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.9
Cash-burning: FCF -76% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Value Rank
4.1
Growth Rank
8.0
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.17Resistance $77.76

Price Targets

$70
$89
A.Upside+18.3%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IONS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.03: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $70.27. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IONS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $88.75 (+18.4% upside). Prior stop was $70.27. Stop-loss: $70.27.

What are the risks of investing in IONS?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Biogen; Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0).

Is IONS overvalued or undervalued?

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -115.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IONS?

29 analysts cover IONS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $99.

What does Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Ionis Pharmaceuticals is a fully integrated commercial-stage RNA-targeted medicine company with seven marketed...

Ionis Pharmaceuticals is a fully integrated commercial-stage RNA-targeted medicine company with seven marketed medicines including SPINRAZA (SMA), TRYNGOLZA (FCS), DAWNZERA (HAE), and WAINUA (ATTRv-PN). Revenue comes from independent product sales (TRYNGOLZA, DAWNZERA in U.S.), royalties, and partner milestones from Biogen (SPINRAZA, QALSODY) and AstraZeneca (WAINUA). The company has a deep late-stage RNA pipeline.

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