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INSPInspire Medical Systems, Inc.Sell5.1·$42.70+0.61%
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Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Sell if holding. At $42.70, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Inspire system; Earnings expected to decline ~70% (cyclical peak).

Inspire Medical Systems is a medical technology company that makes the Inspire system, the only FDA-approved closed-loop neurostimulation therapy for moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea, treating over 125,000 patients. Revenue is generated by selling the implantable... Read more

$42.70+6.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#32 of 40 Medical Devices
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.96%
Stop $39.71Target $45.39(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$52.17+22.2%12 analysts
$45.39our TP
$42.70price
$52.17mean
$39
$65

Sell if holding. At $42.70, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Inspire system; Earnings expected to decline ~70% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Margin of safety: 35%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Inspire system
Earnings expected to decline ~70% (cyclical peak)
Thin upside margin: 6.3%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.7
P/E (Fwd)32.7
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA14.5
Profit Mgn14.3%
ROE18.4%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta0.73
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.09bearish
IV84%elevated
Max Pain$70+63.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductInspire system
    10-K Item 1A: 'our dependency on our Inspire system for revenues'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-05Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan at the May 7, 2026 Annual Meeting, authorizing 18,793,516 shares. Compensatory arrangement for executives; no officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
3.8
Support Resistance
3.8

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.9
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $38.91Resistance $44.98

Price Targets

$40
$45
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 33x vs trail 10x (3.4x)
! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is INSP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $42.70, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Inspire system; Earnings expected to decline ~70% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Prior stop was $39.71. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the INSP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.39 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $39.71. Stop-loss: $39.71.

What are the risks of investing in INSP?

Concentration risk — Product: Inspire system; Earnings expected to decline ~70% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 6.3%.

Is INSP overvalued or undervalued?

Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 32.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about INSP?

24 analysts cover INSP with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. do?Inspire Medical Systems is a medical technology company that makes the Inspire system, the only FDA-approved...

Inspire Medical Systems is a medical technology company that makes the Inspire system, the only FDA-approved closed-loop neurostimulation therapy for moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea, treating over 125,000 patients. Revenue is generated by selling the implantable system to hospitals and ASCs in the US and select European markets through a direct sales force; Japan and Singapore use distributors. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated 295 US and 21 international sales territories.

Related stocks: GMED (Globus Medical, Inc.) · PODD (Insulet Corporation) · AORT (Artivion, Inc.) · MASI (Masimo Corporation) · ATEC (Alphatec Holdings, Inc.)
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