Four consecutive earnings beats averaging nearly 13% above consensus, best-in-class margins, a 34% return on equity, and a near-perfect financial health score make the quality case compelling — but revenue heavily concentrated in a single technology segment, reliance on single-source suppliers, and a forward earnings multiple above 28 times leave the risk/reward thin at the current price with the stock already past its analyst-derived target.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Margins And Returns→Stable
- Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak→Stable
- Product Revenue Concentration Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
Wait for pullback to $261.84. Price sits above the model's entry target of $261.84; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers.
Illumina makes sequencing instruments, consumables (reagents, flow cells, library prep kits), and bioinformatics tools for genetic analysis in research, clinical, and applied markets. Sequencing represented 92% of 2025 consolidated revenue, with consumables comprising 74% of the... Read more
Wait for pullback to $261.84. Price sits above the model's entry target of $261.84; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/9 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Illumina, Inc.
About Illumina, Inc.
Illumina's sequencing products generated 92% of total consolidated revenue in 2025, with international shipments of $2.1 billion representing 48% of the company's total revenue; consumable sales — reagents, flow cells, and library preparation kits — comprised 74% of revenue, while instrument sales fell to 11% from 12% in 2024. The company employs approximately 8,600 full-time employees globally with primary manufacturing and distribution operations in San Diego, Singapore, and Cambridge.
Illumina earns revenue through three categories: instrument sales (sequencing and array platforms), consumables (reagents and library preparation kits), and services (whole-genome sequencing, genotyping, and support). The consumable-heavy model reflects an installed-base dynamic in which customers who adopt Illumina instruments subsequently generate recurring reagent and flow cell purchases — consumables grew from 68% to 74% of revenue between 2023 and 2025 as the NovaSeq X Plus platform ramped. Customers include genomic research centers, academic institutions, government laboratories, hospitals, pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, and commercial molecular diagnostic laboratories. Illumina markets and sells directly in North America, Europe, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific region, supplemented by life-science distributors in certain markets. The 10-K notes that a portion of revenue is increasingly derived from a small number of large, centralized laboratory customers, which may result in greater pricing pressure and increased exposure if any one of those customers reduces orders. Some sub-assemblies, components, and materials are currently available from only a single source, and a disruption at any such supplier could delay product availability.
Show full overview
In February 2025, Chinese regulatory authorities added Illumina to the List of Unreliable Entities under the UEL Provisions, and in March 2025 China prohibited exports of sequencing instruments into China. While the restriction was lifted in November 2025, transactions remain subject to case-by-case approval. Illumina's revenue from the Greater China region — including China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong — was $243 million in 2025. Any future decision by Chinese authorities to reimpose restrictions or levy penalties could materially weigh on revenue, and the company cannot currently predict the duration of its inclusion on the List of Unreliable Entities.
See also: Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
From Illumina, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Illumina, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Illumina Earnings: What To Look For From ILMN - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Illumina Earnings: What To Look For From ILMN - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Illumina Inc. (ILMN) Q1 2026 Earnings: EPS Beats Estimates, Stock Gains Amid Mixed Signals - Earnings Power Value - dars — dars.gov.et positive
- NEWS Illumina Inc. (ILMN) - Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: Key Metrics, Sector Context and Investor Expectations - High Attention — Newser neutral
- NEWS Unlocking Q1 potential of Illumina (ILMN): Exploring Wall Street estimates for key metrics - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductsequencing revenue92%10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, 2024, and 2023, total sequencing revenue comprised 92%, 91%, and 91%, respectively, of total revenue'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers10-K Item 1: 'there are some raw materials and components that we obtain from single-source suppliers'
- LOWGeographicGreater China10-K Item 1A: 'Our revenue from the Greater China region, which includes China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, was $243 million in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOWDrs. Frances Arnold, Robert S. Epstein, and Gary S. Guthart notified the Board of their intention to retire as directors effective May 21, 2026 (2026 annual meeting). Retirements not the result of any dispute or disagreement. David King nominated as replacement director.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $261.84. Price sits above the model's entry target of $261.84; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $224.01 reached (−22.4%), stop $246.38 (−17.2%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $224.01 reached (−22.4% from $288.79); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $224.01 reached (−22.4%), stop $246.38 (−17.2%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Stop-loss: $246.38.
Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Illumina, Inc. trades at a P/E of 53.9 (forward 47.1). TrendMatrix value score: 2.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
28 analysts cover ILMN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $249.
What does Illumina, Inc. do?Illumina makes sequencing instruments, consumables (reagents, flow cells, library prep kits), and bioinformatics tools...
Illumina makes sequencing instruments, consumables (reagents, flow cells, library prep kits), and bioinformatics tools for genetic analysis in research, clinical, and applied markets. Sequencing represented 92% of 2025 consolidated revenue, with consumables comprising 74% of the total; international shipments of $2.1 billion were 48% of total consolidated revenue, primarily sold direct to research centers, hospitals, and diagnostic laboratories worldwide.