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ILMNIllumina, Inc.Sell4.9·$160.30-3.56%
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Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $160.30 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%).

Illumina is a global provider of sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis, serving research centers, clinical labs, pharmaceutical companies, and consumer genomics firms. Sequencing represented 92% of total revenue in 2025 with ~48% from... Read more

$160.30+7.9% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#23 of 26 Diagnostics & Research
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.47%
Stop $149.70Target $173.68(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$147.17-8.2%18 analysts
$173.68our TP
$160.30price
$147.17mean
$95
$185

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $160.30 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.2
P/E (Fwd)27.2
Mkt Cap$24.4B
EV/EBITDA22.3
Profit Mgn19.4%
ROE33.8%
Rev Growth4.8%
Beta1.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV69%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductsequencing revenue92%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, 2024, and 2023, total sequencing revenue comprised 92%, 91%, and 91%, respectively, of total revenue'
  • MEDIUMGeographicGreater China
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our revenue from the Greater China region, which includes China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, was $243 million in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOW
    Directors Frances Arnold, Robert Epstein, and Gary Guthart notified the Board of their intention to retire as directors effective May 21, 2026 (2026 annual meeting). Retirements not the result of any dispute or disagreement. Board nominated David King for election.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.2
Revenue Growth
3.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.2
Value Rank
4.6
Quality Rank
8.6
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
3.8
Pe
4.4
Forward Pe
4.6
Ps
6.5
Forward P/E: 27.2xPEG: 2.82
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80EARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $138.06Resistance $177.22

Price Targets

$150
$174
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ILMN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $160.30 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $149.70. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ILMN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $173.68 (+7.9% upside). Prior stop was $149.70. Stop-loss: $149.70.

What are the risks of investing in ILMN?

Concentration risk — Product: sequencing revenue (92.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is ILMN overvalued or undervalued?

Illumina, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.2 (forward 27.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ILMN?

28 analysts cover ILMN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $147.

What does Illumina, Inc. do?Illumina is a global provider of sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis, serving...

Illumina is a global provider of sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis, serving research centers, clinical labs, pharmaceutical companies, and consumer genomics firms. Sequencing represented 92% of total revenue in 2025 with ~48% from international customers; the company had a backlog of $738M as of December 28, 2025. China regulatory inclusion on the List of Unreliable Entities has constrained instrument exports, with Greater China revenue of $243M in 2025.

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