Value
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.5 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.85
ILMN · Why this verdict
Why Illumina (ILMN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.8 |
| Gross margin | 9.7 |
| Op margin | 7.3 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 34%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Rule of 40: 24 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 3.2 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 3.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $155,602,551 (0.634% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 2.5 |
| put call | 5.6 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 5.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $45
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.9 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.35
Upside
-20.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.49>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5. Top dim: Quality at 7.4; weakest: Insider at 3.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.4, Catalyst at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Insider at 3.0, Peer rank at 3.5, and Growth at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.35 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.