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IIINInsteel Industries, Inc.Sell5.1·$28.23
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Insteel Industries trades at a forward P/E of 11.9x with 13.3% upside to a $31.45 analyst target, but it has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, has no moat and sits in a confirmed downtrend.

Thesis pillars

  • Upside To Analyst Target→Stable
  • Reasonable Forward Valuation→Stable
  • Two Recent Earnings Misses→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Oct 23, 2025

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Insteel Industries, Inc. (IIIN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellValueGrowthHigh Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Insteel Industries Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets steel wire reinforcing products for concrete construction applications. The company offers prestressed concrete strand (PC strand) and welded wire reinforcement (WWR) products. Its PC strand, a... Read more

$28.23+11.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#10 of 10 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.79%
IncomeYield0.43%(5y avg 0.37%)Payout6.42%sustainable
Stop $26.51Analyst target $31.45(−15% haircut)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst consensus$37.00+31.1%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jan 14, 202776d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.7
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$546M
EV/EBITDA9.1
Profit Mgn4.0%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth17.9%
Beta0.53
Dividend0.43%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV58%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-08-21Item 2.05MEDIUM
    . Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities** The information set forth under Item 8.01 below is hereby incorporated into this Item 2.05 by reference. **Item 8.01. Other Events** On August 21, 2026, Insteel Industries Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
7.0

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.7
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.7
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)8K SERIOUS 2.05A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $27.33Resistance $31.11

Price Targets

$27
$31
A.Upside+11.4%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! 8K_SERIOUS:2.05

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-14 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IIIN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $26.51. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the IIIN stock price target?

Analyst target: $31.45 (+11.4% upside). Prior stop was $26.51. Stop-loss: $26.51.

What are the risks of investing in IIIN?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is IIIN overvalued or undervalued?

Insteel Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.7 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IIIN?

6 analysts cover IIIN with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Insteel Industries, Inc. do?Insteel Industries Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets steel wire reinforcing products for...

Insteel Industries Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets steel wire reinforcing products for concrete construction applications. The company offers prestressed concrete strand (PC strand) and welded wire reinforcement (WWR) products. Its PC strand, a seven-wire strand that is used to impart compression forces into precast concrete elements and structures providing reinforcement for bridges, parking decks, buildings, and other concrete structures. The company's WWR engineered reinforcing product is used in nonresidential and residential construction. It produces a range of WWR products, such as engineered structural mesh, an engineered made-to-order product that is used as the primary reinforcement for concrete elements or structures serving as a reinforcing solution for hot-rolled rebar; concrete pipe reinforcement, an engineered made-to-order product, which is used as the primary reinforcement in concrete pipe, box culverts, and precast manholes for drainage and sewage systems, water treatment facilities, and other related applications; and standard welded wire reinforcement, a secondary reinforcing product for crack control applications in residential and light nonresidential construction, including driveways, sidewalks, and various slab-on-grade applications. It sells its products through sales representatives to the manufacturers of concrete products, rebar fabricators, distributors, and contractors. Insteel Industries Inc. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Mount Airy, North Carolina.

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