A recreational vehicle manufacturer facing declining revenue of 12%, below-minimum business quality, and a stock priced above its near-term technical resistance — with high short interest and three distinct concentration risks adding further headwinds; the current risk/reward setup is unfavorable.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Contraction No Moat→Stable
- Price Above Technical Resistance→Stable
- High Short Interest Persistent Bears→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality.
Harley-Davidson designs and sells motorcycles, parts, and accessories under the HDMC segment and the LiveWire electric motorcycle brand, and provides consumer and dealer financing through HDFS. Total revenue was $4.47 billion in 2025, with motorcycles representing 74.3% of HDMC... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Harley-Davidson, Inc.
About Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Harley-Davidson generated $4.47 billion in consolidated revenue in fiscal 2025, with the HDMC segment contributing $3.58 billion, Harley-Davidson Financial Services adding $869 million, and the electric LiveWire brand accounting for $25.7 million. The company operated 1,174 dealership points globally as of December 31, 2025, holding 34.5% of U.S. 601+cc motorcycle registrations—down from 37.3% in 2024—while European market share declined to 3.4% from 5.0% a year earlier.
Harley-Davidson earns revenue through motorcycle unit sales (74.3% of HDMC segment revenue in 2025), parts and accessories (17.2%), apparel (6.0%), and licensing (0.6%). Motorcycles are sold through 554 U.S. and 620 international dealership points; HDFS provides floorplan financing to all U.S. and Canadian independent dealers and retail installment lending through most dealerships, financing 68.4% of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles retailed in the U.S. in 2025. Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2025, the company started selling up to two-thirds of retail loan originations to two external counterparties as part of a transaction restructuring HDFS's funding mix. LiveWire purchases completed electric motorcycles from HDMC and resells them through dealer and direct-to-consumer channels; its STACYC children's electric balance bike brand sources from contract manufacturers in Taiwan and China. The 10-K acknowledges that supplier First Brands Group, LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in September 2025, requiring supply chain mitigation by the company.
Show full overview
Harley-Davidson's motorcycle operations depend on unionized hourly production employees covered by four collective bargaining agreements with affiliates of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers and the United Steelworkers of America. The Pennsylvania agreement expires October 15, 2027; the Wisconsin agreements expire March 31, 2029. Failure to negotiate successor agreements on acceptable terms could result in production relocations or work stoppages, per the 10-K. In late 2025, the company also mandated that Milwaukee-based corporate employees return to on-site work after five years of primarily remote operations, which the filing explicitly flags as a potential driver of attrition and hiring difficulty.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles
From Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Harley-Davidson Q3 EPS $0.40 Misses $0.48 Estimate, Sales $964.017M Miss $1.063B Estimate — benzinga Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Adjusts Price Target on Harley-Davidson — fiscal.ai Oct 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS New AMA Motorcycle Hall of Fame Exhibit Features Harley-Davidson History — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Harley-Davidson and LiveWire Group to Exhibit at EICMA 2026 — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Citigroup Upgrades Harley-Davidson to Buy, Raises Price Target to $33 — benzinga Oct 5, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductmotorcycles74%10-K Item 1: 'HDMC revenue by product line as a percent of total revenue for the last three fiscal years was as follows ... Motorcycles| 74.3 | %|'
- HIGHGeographicU.S. and European 601+cc markets79%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 79% of the total annual dealer retail sales of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles were sold in the U.S. and European 601+cc markets'
- HIGHSuppliersingle supplier components10-K Item 1A: 'the Company relies on a single supplier to provide component parts or a contract manufacturer to manufacture certain components and/or products'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-28Item 5.02LOWAt the May 21, 2026 annual meeting, shareholders approved an amendment to the Harley-Davidson 2020 Incentive Stock Plan increasing authorized shares to 12,200,000 total. Compensatory arrangement change; no officer departure or appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -5.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $27.70. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $24.45 reached (−17.2% from $29.52); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $27.70. Stop-loss: $27.70.
Concentration risk — Product: motorcycles (74.3%); Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and European 601+cc markets (79.0%); Target reached (-17.2% upside).
Harley-Davidson, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover HOG with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Harley-Davidson, Inc. do?Harley-Davidson designs and sells motorcycles, parts, and accessories under the HDMC segment and the LiveWire electric...
Harley-Davidson designs and sells motorcycles, parts, and accessories under the HDMC segment and the LiveWire electric motorcycle brand, and provides consumer and dealer financing through HDFS. Total revenue was $4.47 billion in 2025, with motorcycles representing 74.3% of HDMC segment revenue; HDFS financed 68.4% of U.S. new Harley-Davidson motorcycles retailed in 2025. The company held 34.5% U.S. market share in 601+cc motorcycle registrations as of 2025.