Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.30: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.44; Below-average business quality.
Harley-Davidson manufactures and sells motorcycles and related products through three segments: HDMC (motorcycles, parts, accessories), LiveWire (electric motorcycles), and HDFS (financial services). Total revenues were $4.47 billion in 2025, primarily from wholesale motorcycle... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.30: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.44; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-10Recent Developments — Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Harley-Davidson Announces Return Of Revolution Max Production Back To The U.S., Production Expected To Begin In 2027 — benzinga Jun 9, 2026 positive
- NEWS Recent Report Shows That Rep. Tim Moore Bought Up to $80K Worth of AT&T Stock — benzinga May 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Micron To Rally More Than 61%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Tuesday — benzinga May 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Underweight on Harley-Davidson, Raises Price Target to $15 — benzinga May 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Harley-Davidson, Raises Price Target to $26 — benzinga May 11, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-10Item 5.02LOWJames Duncan Farley Jr. notified the company on February 9, 2026 that he does not wish to stand for re-election as a Board director at the upcoming annual meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with the company. Board expected to decrease from nine to eight members.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -11.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.30: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.44; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $23.79. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $25.44 (-0.2% upside). Prior stop was $23.79. Stop-loss: $23.79.
Target reached (-13.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
Harley-Davidson, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.2 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover HOG with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $25.
What does Harley-Davidson, Inc. do?Harley-Davidson manufactures and sells motorcycles and related products through three segments: HDMC (motorcycles,...
Harley-Davidson manufactures and sells motorcycles and related products through three segments: HDMC (motorcycles, parts, accessories), LiveWire (electric motorcycles), and HDFS (financial services). Total revenues were $4.47 billion in 2025, primarily from wholesale motorcycle sales through ~1,174 independent dealers globally. HDMC North America Solutions contributed ~63% of consolidated revenues, and HDFS financed 68.4% of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles retailed in the U.S. in 2025.