Hallador Energy offers a large gap to its $23.80 analyst target and a low-multiple value profile, but quality is poor, free cash flow is negative, earnings are inconsistent and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend.
Thesis pillars
- Large Gap To Analyst Target→Stable
- Cheap Valuation On Sales→Stable
- Weak Cash Generation Quality→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 12, 2026
Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Sector Rotation edge
Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.89: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 6.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Hallador Energy is a vertically integrated independent power producer and coal mining company operating primarily in Indiana, generating electricity from the 1,080 MW coal-fired Merom Power Plant within the MISO grid and mining bituminous coal from the Illinois Basin through its... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.89: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 6.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Hallador Energy Company
About Hallador Energy Company
Hallador Energy generates electricity from a single 1,080 MW coal-fired plant, Merom, dispatched into the MISO grid, and mines bituminous coal from the Illinois Basin through its Sunrise Coal subsidiary in Indiana. In its Electric Operations segment, one customer represented 23.4% of 2025 revenue and a second represented 10.1%; in Coal Operations, two customers accounted for 10.4% and 13.8% of 2025 revenue, respectively. Hallador Power is regulated by FERC as a public utility for its wholesale power sales.
Hallador sells accredited capacity and wholesale energy from Merom to utilities and other MISO market participants through power purchase agreements and bilateral contracts, supplemented by spot sales in the day-ahead and real-time MISO markets, while Sunrise mines coal primarily for delivery to power plants in the Midwest and Southeast United States under long-term contracts. The company's Oaktown Mining Complex sits about twenty miles from Merom, letting the two businesses share low-cost fuel logistics on a delivered basis. Hallador is pursuing growth beyond its existing coal-fired capacity: it applied to MISO's Expedited Resource Addition Study (ERAS) program in November 2025 to add up to 515 MW of natural gas generation adjacent to Merom, and MISO accepted the application for a 6-to-9-month review versus the traditional 4.5-year interconnection process. The company recorded a $215.1 million non-cash impairment on its coal properties in the fourth quarter of 2024 and held $30.0 million of funded bank debt as of December 31, 2025.
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Hallador's revenue rests on a small set of offtake relationships in both of its segments: in Electric Operations, one customer supplied 23.4% of 2025 segment revenue (down from 30.6% in 2024) and a second contributed 10.1%, while in Coal Operations two customers accounted for 10.4% and 13.8%, respectively. Because Merom is Hallador's only generating asset and Sunrise's Oaktown complex is its primary coal source, the loss or non-renewal of any of these named customers, or a shift in industry conditions that leaves the company more exposed to volatile day-ahead and spot MISO pricing, would concentrate risk in a way a more diversified generation or mining fleet would not.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
From Hallador Energy Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Hallador Energy Company
Latest news
- NEWS Hallador Energy Company Schedules Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call — fiscal.ai Oct 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Hallador Energy Secures Record Capacity Pricing for Merom Station, Boosts Sales Book to $3 Billion — benzinga Oct 8, 2026 positive
- NEWS Crude Oil Gains 5%; PepsiCo Posts Upbeat Q3 Earnings — benzinga Oct 8, 2026 positive
- NEWS Helen Of Troy Posts Upbeat Q2 Earnings, Joins Pacira Biosciences, Wolfspeed And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Thursd — benzinga Oct 8, 2026 positive
- NEWS Hallador Energy Enters Six-Year, $700M Capacity And Energy Agreements With A MISO Zone 6 Utility Covering Deliveries Fro — benzinga Oct 8, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Revenue shrinking — -1.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.89: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 6.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $11.06. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $23.80 (+100.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.06. Stop-loss: $11.06.
Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0).
Hallador Energy Company trades at a P/E of 594.5 (forward 54.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover HNRG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Hallador Energy Company do?Hallador Energy is a vertically integrated independent power producer and coal mining company operating primarily in...
Hallador Energy is a vertically integrated independent power producer and coal mining company operating primarily in Indiana, generating electricity from the 1,080 MW coal-fired Merom Power Plant within the MISO grid and mining bituminous coal from the Illinois Basin through its Sunrise Coal subsidiary. In 2025, one customer accounted for 23.4% of Electric Operations segment revenue and another for 13.8% of Coal Operations segment revenue, reflecting the company's reliance on a small number of long-term power and coal offtake contracts. Hallador has applied to MISO's ERAS program to add up to