Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
HNRG · Why this verdict
Why Hallador Energy (HNRG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The setup shows a highly favorable risk/reward skew, with roughly 58.7% upside to the analyst-based target against about 14% downside to the stop, producing an asymmetry ratio above 4-to-1. Reward-to-risk math | If the asymmetric setup plays out, price should move substantially toward the target as the wide reward-to-risk gap closes. | →Stable |
| CounterThe position-sizing framework still lands on avoid despite the favorable ratio, since the stock is failing the momentum gate and business quality screens below the minimum floor. | ||
Business quality screens below the minimum acceptable floor at 2.9 against a 4.0 threshold, with the data citing quality concerns and no competitive moat. Warnings | The quality score would need to climb back above the 4.0 floor for the position to become suitable to hold again. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company has still beaten earnings in three of the last four quarters with a strong average surprise, showing operational execution even while the blended quality score screens weak. | ||
Cash conversion is weak, with free cash flow running at only 44% of net income, a level the data flags as an earnings-quality red flag. Quality breakdown | The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should climb back toward or above 100% for the cash-conversion concern to resolve over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe ratio is still positive, meaning the business is generating real free cash flow, just at a level below net income rather than a shortfall into negative territory. | ||
Price momentum is currently weak, failing the engine's threshold at 2.5 against a 4.5 minimum, though the 200-day moving average is still rising and the data characterizes the move as a pullback rather than confirmed weakness. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum would need to climb back above the 4.5 threshold for the momentum gate to clear. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume is distributing, with a falling on-balance-volume reading, a genuine near-term headwind even if the longer-term moving-average trend has not confirmed a breakdown. | ||
Options positioning shows an extreme skew, with a put/call ratio of 36.07, a level the data flags as elevated, alongside high implied volatility of 98%. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio and implied volatility should normalize toward more typical levels if the extreme positioning was a temporary distortion. | →Stable |
| CounterInsiders have been buying, adding $86,520 in net purchases over the past 90 days, a bullish signal that runs counter to the bearish skew implied by the extreme put/call ratio. | ||
The setup shows a highly favorable risk/reward skew, with roughly 58.7% upside to the analyst-based target against about 14% downside to the stop, producing an asymmetry ratio above 4-to-1.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- If the asymmetric setup plays out, price should move substantially toward the target as the wide reward-to-risk gap closes.
CounterThe position-sizing framework still lands on avoid despite the favorable ratio, since the stock is failing the momentum gate and business quality screens below the minimum floor.
Business quality screens below the minimum acceptable floor at 2.9 against a 4.0 threshold, with the data citing quality concerns and no competitive moat.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The quality score would need to climb back above the 4.0 floor for the position to become suitable to hold again.
CounterThe company has still beaten earnings in three of the last four quarters with a strong average surprise, showing operational execution even while the blended quality score screens weak.
Cash conversion is weak, with free cash flow running at only 44% of net income, a level the data flags as an earnings-quality red flag.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should climb back toward or above 100% for the cash-conversion concern to resolve over the next several quarters.
CounterThe ratio is still positive, meaning the business is generating real free cash flow, just at a level below net income rather than a shortfall into negative territory.
Price momentum is currently weak, failing the engine's threshold at 2.5 against a 4.5 minimum, though the 200-day moving average is still rising and the data characterizes the move as a pullback rather than confirmed weakness.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum would need to climb back above the 4.5 threshold for the momentum gate to clear.
CounterVolume is distributing, with a falling on-balance-volume reading, a genuine near-term headwind even if the longer-term moving-average trend has not confirmed a breakdown.
Options positioning shows an extreme skew, with a put/call ratio of 36.07, a level the data flags as elevated, alongside high implied volatility of 98%.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio and implied volatility should normalize toward more typical levels if the extreme positioning was a temporary distortion.
CounterInsiders have been buying, adding $86,520 in net purchases over the past 90 days, a bullish signal that runs counter to the bearish skew implied by the extreme put/call ratio.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hallador Energy shows a highly favorable price-target asymmetry and a still-positive insider buying signal, but weak business quality, soft cash conversion, and a failed momentum gate keep the setup rated avoid despite the attractive headline reward-to-risk math.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.5 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 44% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -14%
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.1 |
| OBV | 1.2 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 89%
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 9.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $86,520 (0.012% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 3.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 15.50
- ▸High IV: 83%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.09
Upside
+60.2%
Downside
14.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Insider at 7.2, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Quality at 3.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Asymmetric Upside
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio falls below 2.0, down from the current 4.17 reading, as the reward-to-risk gap narrows.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifThe quality score rises above 4.0, recovering from the current 2.9 reading.
- P3Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio rises above 100%, up from the current 44% level.
- P4Weak Momentum Pullback
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the current 2.5 reading and the engine's minimum threshold.
- P5Extreme Options Skew
Trip ifThe put/call ratio falls below 5.0, down sharply from the current 36.07 reading.