Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 54.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
HNRG · Why this verdict
Why Hallador Energy (HNRG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hallador Energy offers a large gap to its $23.80 analyst target and a low-multiple value profile, but quality is poor, free cash flow is negative, earnings are inconsistent and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The $11.05 price sits well below the $23.80 analyst target, implying 115.4% upside against a modeled 15% downside. Targets | Price should close part of the gap to the analyst target as earnings stabilize over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA target more than double the price on a stock down about 55% from its high suggests analysts have not caught up with deteriorating fundamentals. | ||
Valuation scores well with a PEG of 0.05 and strong price-to-sales credit, flagged as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Valuation metrics should stay cheap relative to peers while revenue stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterForward P/E is 51.0x, so the cheap look rests on the PEG and sales multiples rather than on earnings. | ||
Quality scores 1.5/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with free cash flow at -1% of revenue and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive and quality rise toward 4.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA commodity-linked power producer with zero margin credit has little pricing power to lift cash generation on its own. | ||
Hallador split its last 4 quarters 2 beats and 2 misses, with the two most recent quarters both misses, including -$0.32 against a -$0.10 estimate in August 2026. Earnings | EPS should come in at or above consensus in the next 2 reports, starting November 2026. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two recent misses came with losses widening, so the earlier beats may have been one-off and the trend is deteriorating. | ||
Price is below the 200-day average with a moving-average slope of -5.3% over 30 days, falling on-balance volume, and revenue is declining 1%. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and revenue should return to growth over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDistribution with falling volume and a 55% drawdown show sellers are in control, and short interest of 10% adds to the pressure. | ||
The $11.05 price sits well below the $23.80 analyst target, implying 115.4% upside against a modeled 15% downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the analyst target as earnings stabilize over 12 months.
CounterA target more than double the price on a stock down about 55% from its high suggests analysts have not caught up with deteriorating fundamentals.
Valuation scores well with a PEG of 0.05 and strong price-to-sales credit, flagged as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation metrics should stay cheap relative to peers while revenue stabilizes.
CounterForward P/E is 51.0x, so the cheap look rests on the PEG and sales multiples rather than on earnings.
Quality scores 1.5/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with free cash flow at -1% of revenue and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive and quality rise toward 4.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA commodity-linked power producer with zero margin credit has little pricing power to lift cash generation on its own.
Hallador split its last 4 quarters 2 beats and 2 misses, with the two most recent quarters both misses, including -$0.32 against a -$0.10 estimate in August 2026.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should come in at or above consensus in the next 2 reports, starting November 2026.
CounterThe two recent misses came with losses widening, so the earlier beats may have been one-off and the trend is deteriorating.
Price is below the 200-day average with a moving-average slope of -5.3% over 30 days, falling on-balance volume, and revenue is declining 1%.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and revenue should return to growth over the next 12 months.
CounterDistribution with falling volume and a 55% drawdown show sellers are in control, and short interest of 10% adds to the pressure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.2 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 135%
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 7.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸High IV: 103%
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:6.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
6.68
Upside
+100.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish
EdgeSector Rotation — Utilities sector out of favor, value=7.3
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -52% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.0<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of 6.68.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Sentiment at 6.5, and Insider at 6.2; the weakest are Quality at 1.5, Growth at 2.2, and Momentum at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Gap To Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target is cut below $15.00 from the current $23.80.
- P2Cheap Valuation On Sales
Trip ifForward P/E stays above 40x for 4 consecutive quarters as earnings fail to grow.
- P3Weak Cash Generation Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow stays below 0% of revenue for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Inconsistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend And Falling Revenue
Trip ifPrice falls below the $10.41 stop level from the current $11.05.