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Horace Mann Educators Corporati (HMN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.64 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: one partner.

Horace Mann Educators is the largest multiline financial services company focused on U.S. educators, offering auto/home insurance, 403(b) retirement annuities, life insurance, and supplemental group benefits through three segments. Revenue comes from premiums, investment income,... Read more

$45.64+0.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#11 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
Stop $43.86Target $45.81(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$51.50+12.8%2 analysts
$45.81our TP
$45.64price
$51.50mean
$53

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.64 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: one partner. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: one partner
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.7
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA12.2
Profit Mgn9.5%
ROE11.7%
Rev Growth6.3%
Beta0.05
Dividend3.17%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerone partner
    10-K Item 1A: 'distribution highly concentrated in one partner'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    Ryan Greenier (EVP and CFO) appointed Interim Chief Accounting Officer during Maureen Temchuk maternity leave beginning approximately March 30, 2026 through approximately July 6, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.7
Growth Rank
4.1
Value Rank
5.3

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.7
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $43.13Resistance $46.75

Price Targets

$44
$46
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.1% upside)
! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HMN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.64 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: one partner. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $43.86. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HMN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.81 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $43.86. Stop-loss: $43.86.

What are the risks of investing in HMN?

Concentration risk — Customer: one partner; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is HMN overvalued or undervalued?

Horace Mann Educators Corporati trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HMN?

8 analysts cover HMN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Horace Mann Educators Corporati do?Horace Mann Educators is the largest multiline financial services company focused on U.S. educators, offering auto/home...

Horace Mann Educators is the largest multiline financial services company focused on U.S. educators, offering auto/home insurance, 403(b) retirement annuities, life insurance, and supplemental group benefits through three segments. Revenue comes from premiums, investment income, and fee income; products are distributed through exclusive agents and worksite relationships.

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