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HMNHorace Mann Educators CorporatiHold5.6·$48.49-0.76%
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Horace Mann Educators Corporati (HMN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: single group benefits distribution partner; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Horace Mann Educators Corporation is an insurance holding company serving K-12 educators with auto, property, life, retirement (403(b)), and supplemental/group benefits products across three segments. The company reaches ~14 million educator households through exclusive agents,... Read more

$48.49-0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#13 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield13.97%
IncomeYield2.95%(5y avg 3.48%)Payout35.43%sustainable
Stop $46.15Target $48.25(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$52.00+7.2%2 analysts
$48.25our TP
$48.49price
$52.00mean
$53

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: single group benefits distribution partner; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: single group benefits distribution partner
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)9.6
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA9.2
Profit Mgn9.6%
ROE11.7%
Rev Growth3.1%
Beta0.13
Dividend2.95%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia15%
    10-K Item 1: 'the top five states and their portion of total direct insurance premiums were California, 15.4%; Texas, 9.2%; North Carolina, 7.6%; Minnesota, 6.2%; and Georgia, 4.9%'
  • HIGHcounterpartysingle group benefits distribution partner
    10-K Item 1A: 'distribution highly concentrated in one partner. If we are unable to retain our critical distribution partner or are unable to expand to additional distribution partners, our sales could be adversely impacted.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    Maureen Temchuk, VP Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, commencing maternity leave on or about March 30, 2026 until approximately July 6, 2026. Ryan Greenier, EVP and CFO, will serve as Interim Chief Accounting Officer during her leave.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.1
Quality Rank
3.4
Value Rank
5.6

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.3
Earnings Growth
3.7
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.60Resistance $49.23

Price Targets

$46
$48
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HMN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: single group benefits distribution partner; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $48.25 (-0.5%), stop $46.15 (−5.1%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HMN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.25 (-0.5% upside). Target $48.25 (-0.5%), stop $46.15 (−5.1%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $46.15.

What are the risks of investing in HMN?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: single group benefits distribution partner; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away).

Is HMN overvalued or undervalued?

Horace Mann Educators Corporati trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HMN?

7 analysts cover HMN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Horace Mann Educators Corporati do?Horace Mann Educators Corporation is an insurance holding company serving K-12 educators with auto, property, life,...

Horace Mann Educators Corporation is an insurance holding company serving K-12 educators with auto, property, life, retirement (403(b)), and supplemental/group benefits products across three segments. The company reaches ~14 million educator households through exclusive agents, digital, and worksite channels. California accounted for 15.4% and Texas 9.2% of direct P&C premiums in 2025.

Related stocks: SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) · PLMR (Palomar Holdings, Inc.) · STC (Stewart Information Services Co) · ORI (Old Republic International Corp) · MCY (Mercury General Corporation)
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