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HLNHaleon plcSell4.9·$10.00
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Haleon offers a financially sound consumer health franchise with strong margins and a favorable risk/reward setup, but a death cross and sustained negative price momentum block near-term entry; the thesis requires a technical reversal before the asymmetric upside becomes actionable.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Margins Piotroski→Stable
  • Death Cross Price Momentum↓Deteriorating
  • Asymmetric Upside Risk Reward→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Haleon plc (HLN) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. At $10.00, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Haleon plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of various consumer healthcare products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers oral health products, such... Read more

QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.10%
IncomeYield1.94%Payout40.08%sustainable
Stop $9.62Analyst target $10.38(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst consensus$11.93+19.3%5 analysts
$10.38Analyst target
$10.00price
$11.93mean
$14

Sell if holding. At $10.00, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 118d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Feb 24, 2027118d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.8%
Weak overall score: 4.9/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.4
P/E (Fwd)16.2
Mkt Cap$44.0B
EV/EBITDA18.2
Profit Mgn14.6%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta0.28
Dividend1.94%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.33bearish
IV73%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.1
Revenue Growth
3.0
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 118d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.67Resistance $10.39

Price Targets

$10
$10
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-24 (118d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $10.00, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $9.62. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLN stock price target?

Analyst target: $10.38 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $9.62. Stop-loss: $9.62.

What are the risks of investing in HLN?

Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Weak growth.

Is HLN overvalued or undervalued?

Haleon plc trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HLN?

26 analysts cover HLN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Haleon plc do?Haleon plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of various...

Haleon plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of various consumer healthcare products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers oral health products, such as toothpastes, mouth washes, and denture care products under the Sensodyne, Polident, Parodontax, and Biotene brands; and vitamins, minerals, and supplements under Centrum, Emergen-C, Caltrate brands. It also provides various over-the-counter products comprising nasal drops, and cold, flu, and allergy relief products under Theraflu, and Flonase brands for respiratory issues; and pain relief products under Voltaren, Panadol, and Advil brands; and antacids and antihistamine products under TUMS, ENO, and Fenistil brands for digestive health and other issues. Haleon plc has a collaboration agreement with Microsoft to scale digital, data and AI capabilities across the business and accelerate delivery of its global win as one strategy. Haleon plc was formerly known as DRVW 2022 plc and changed its name to Haleon plc in February 2022. The company was founded in 1715 and is headquartered in Weybridge, the United Kingdom.

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