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Alkermes plc (ALKS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $32.91. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $33.73. Engine's entry $32.91 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Janssen; Concentration risk — Customer: Biogen.

Alkermes is an Ireland-based biopharmaceutical company commercializing neuroscience medicines including VIVITROL (opioid/alcohol dependence), ARISTADA (schizophrenia), LYBALVI (schizophrenia/bipolar), and LUMRYZ (narcolepsy, acquired February 2026). The company also earns... Read more

$33.73+21.0% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#29 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Entry $32.91(support + ATR)Stop $31.50Target $39.81(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.5:1Setup A.R:R 4.9:1
Analyst target$44.24+31.1%17 analysts
$39.81our TP
$33.73price
$44.24mean
$30
$58

Wait for pullback to $32.91. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $33.73. Engine's entry $32.91 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Janssen; Concentration risk — Customer: Biogen. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val4.9Qual5.8Grw0.0Mom2.7Sent7.7Ins3.8Peer3.4Tech6.8Risk4.64.3OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Janssen
Concentration risk — Customer: Biogen
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.6
P/E (Fwd)48.2
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA18.1
Profit Mgn16.4%
ROE14.7%
Rev Growth-10.6%
Beta0.39
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.49bullish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$15-55.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerJanssen
    10-K Item 1A: 'we receive substantial revenue from Janssen's sales of XEPLION, INVEGA TRINZA/TREVICTA, INVEGA HAFYERA/BYANNLI, and from Biogen's sales of VUMERITY.'
  • HIGHCustomerBiogen
    10-K Item 1A: 'we receive substantial revenue from Janssen's sales of XEPLION, INVEGA TRINZA/TREVICTA, INVEGA HAFYERA/BYANNLI, and from Biogen's sales of VUMERITY.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On February 24, 2026, CEO Richard F. Pops announced retirement effective July 31, 2026, after 35 years. Successor: current COO Blair C. Jackson appointed CEO effective August 1, 2026. Pops will remain as non-executive Chairman and Senior Advisor through December 31, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -10.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -11%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.8
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.4
Value Rank
3.8
Quality Rank
6.0
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dA.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.47Resistance $35.52

Price Targets

$32
$33
$40
A.Upside+18.0%
A.R:R3.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALKS stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $32.91. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $33.73. Engine's entry $32.91 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Janssen; Concentration risk — Customer: Biogen. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $39.81 (+18.0%), stop $31.50 (−7.1%), Setup A.R:R 4.9:1. Score 4.3/10, high confidence.

What is the ALKS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.81 (+21.0% upside). Target $39.81 (+18.0%), stop $31.50 (−7.1%), Setup A.R:R 4.9:1. Stop-loss: $31.50.

What are the risks of investing in ALKS?

Concentration risk — Customer: Janssen; Concentration risk — Customer: Biogen; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing).

Is ALKS overvalued or undervalued?

Alkermes plc trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 48.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ALKS?

24 analysts cover ALKS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Alkermes plc do?Alkermes is an Ireland-based biopharmaceutical company commercializing neuroscience medicines including VIVITROL...

Alkermes is an Ireland-based biopharmaceutical company commercializing neuroscience medicines including VIVITROL (opioid/alcohol dependence), ARISTADA (schizophrenia), LYBALVI (schizophrenia/bipolar), and LUMRYZ (narcolepsy, acquired February 2026). The company also earns manufacturing and royalty revenue from Janssen's INVEGA product family and Biogen's VUMERITY under licensed proprietary technologies.

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