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ALKSAlkermes plcHold6.0·$45.19+0.59%
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Alkermes plc (ALKS) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away).

Alkermes plc develops and commercializes neuroscience medicines including ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ (acquired via Avadel in February 2026) exclusively in the U.S. Revenue flows from direct product sales plus manufacturing fees and royalties from licensees Janssen... Read more

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.88%
Stop $41.98Target $44.84(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$46.13+2.1%16 analysts
$44.84our TP
$45.19price
$46.13mean
$34
$59

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Alkermes plc

About Alkermes plc

Alkermes' five marketed neuroscience brands in the U.S. as of early 2026 are ARISTADA and ARISTADA INITIO (aripiprazole lauroxil, schizophrenia), LYBALVI (olanzapine/samidorphan, schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder), VIVITROL (naltrexone, alcohol and opioid dependence), and LUMRYZ (sodium oxybate, narcolepsy) — the last added via the Avadel Acquisition completed February 12, 2026 at $21.00 per share plus a contingent value right. Alkermes also earns royalties and manufacturing revenue from licensees; revenues from Janssen collaborative arrangements accounted for approximately 9% of consolidated revenues in 2025, down from 17% in 2024 and 31% in 2023.

Revenue flows through three channels. Direct proprietary product sales — ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ — target U.S. specialty channels in psychiatry and addiction medicine. Manufacturing revenue comes from RISPERDAL CONSTA microspheres, which Alkermes exclusively produces at its Wilmington, Ohio facility for Janssen at a minimum fee of 7.5% on net unit sales. Royalty revenue is earned from Janssen's long-acting INVEGA paliperidone products and from Biogen's worldwide sales of VUMERITY (diroximel fumarate, multiple sclerosis) at a 15% royalty rate. LUMRYZ carries a mandatory FDA REMS requiring certified prescribers and pharmacies and patient enrollment, constraining distribution; the FDA granted seven years of orphan drug exclusivity through May 1, 2030 for adult narcolepsy and October 16, 2031 for pediatric narcolepsy. The pipeline lead asset, alixorexton, received FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation for narcolepsy type 1 in December 2025, with Phase 3 initiation planned for Q1 2026.

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Alixorexton is Alkermes' sole Phase 3-bound candidate and the primary organic growth vector beyond the existing portfolio. Positive Phase 2 topline data from Vibrance-1 (NT1) and Vibrance-2 (NT2) were disclosed in 2025, and Vibrance-3 (IH, phase 2) remains ongoing. If the Phase 3 program fails to demonstrate efficacy, the company would rely on existing marketed products and royalty streams — including Janssen arrangements that have declined from 31% of consolidated revenues in 2023 to 9% in 2025. LUMRYZ is also subject to a royalty of 3.85% of net narcolepsy sales payable to Jazz Pharmaceuticals under the Avadel Settlement Agreement, reducing net revenue from the newly acquired asset.

See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

From Alkermes plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.3% away)
Euphoria warning: extreme positivity (+1.00) + overbought RSI 82

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.9
P/E (Fwd)19.1
Mkt Cap$7.5B
EV/EBITDA30.7
Profit Mgn9.8%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth28.2%
Beta0.33
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$25-44.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerJanssen9.0%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenues from our collaborative arrangements with Janssen accounted for approximately 9% ... of our consolidated revenues'
  • MEDIUMCustomerBiogen / VUMERITY
    10-K Item 1A: 'substantial revenue from ... Biogen's sales of VUMERITY'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders at the May 20, 2026 Annual Meeting approved amendments to the Alkermes 2018 Stock Option and Incentive Plan, increasing ordinary shares authorized for issuance by 5,900,000. Routine compensatory arrangement; no departures or appointments.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
4.9
Growth Rank
8.5
Industry growth leader

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.6
Bollinger
1.4
52w Position
9.7
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
82 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.25Resistance $45.76

Price Targets

$42
$45
A.Upside-0.8%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALKS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $44.84 (-0.8%), stop $41.98 (−7.6%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALKS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.84 (-0.7% upside). Target $44.84 (-0.8%), stop $41.98 (−7.6%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $41.98.

What are the risks of investing in ALKS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away); Euphoria warning: extreme positivity (+1.00) + overbought RSI 82.

Is ALKS overvalued or undervalued?

Alkermes plc trades at a P/E of 49.9 (forward 19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ALKS?

23 analysts cover ALKS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Alkermes plc do?Alkermes plc develops and commercializes neuroscience medicines including ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ...

Alkermes plc develops and commercializes neuroscience medicines including ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ (acquired via Avadel in February 2026) exclusively in the U.S. Revenue flows from direct product sales plus manufacturing fees and royalties from licensees Janssen (RISPERDAL CONSTA manufacture) and Biogen (VUMERITY); Janssen accounted for approximately 9% of 2025 consolidated revenues.

Related stocks: NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.) · INDV (Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · ANIP (ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · COLL (Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.) · BHC (Bausch Health Companies Inc.)
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