Alkermes has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise exceeding 300%, growing revenue at 28% year-over-year and earning one of the strongest Piotroski scores in its peer group — yet the stock is trading within 1.1% of its price target with an RSI of 77 and a negative risk/reward ratio, making the setup unattractive for new entry at current levels despite the fundamental quality.
Thesis pillars
- Sustained Earnings Outperformance→Stable
- Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
- Overbought At Price Target→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Alkermes plc (ALKS) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Earnings in 4 days (event risk).
Alkermes plc develops and commercializes neuroscience medicines including ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ (acquired via Avadel in February 2026) exclusively in the U.S. Revenue flows from direct product sales plus manufacturing fees and royalties from licensees Janssen... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Alkermes plc
About Alkermes plc
Alkermes' five marketed neuroscience brands in the U.S. as of early 2026 are ARISTADA and ARISTADA INITIO (aripiprazole lauroxil, schizophrenia), LYBALVI (olanzapine/samidorphan, schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder), VIVITROL (naltrexone, alcohol and opioid dependence), and LUMRYZ (sodium oxybate, narcolepsy) — the last added via the Avadel Acquisition completed February 12, 2026 at $21.00 per share plus a contingent value right. Alkermes also earns royalties and manufacturing revenue from licensees; revenues from Janssen collaborative arrangements accounted for approximately 9% of consolidated revenues in 2025, down from 17% in 2024 and 31% in 2023.
Revenue flows through three channels. Direct proprietary product sales — ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ — target U.S. specialty channels in psychiatry and addiction medicine. Manufacturing revenue comes from RISPERDAL CONSTA microspheres, which Alkermes exclusively produces at its Wilmington, Ohio facility for Janssen at a minimum fee of 7.5% on net unit sales. Royalty revenue is earned from Janssen's long-acting INVEGA paliperidone products and from Biogen's worldwide sales of VUMERITY (diroximel fumarate, multiple sclerosis) at a 15% royalty rate. LUMRYZ carries a mandatory FDA REMS requiring certified prescribers and pharmacies and patient enrollment, constraining distribution; the FDA granted seven years of orphan drug exclusivity through May 1, 2030 for adult narcolepsy and October 16, 2031 for pediatric narcolepsy. The pipeline lead asset, alixorexton, received FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation for narcolepsy type 1 in December 2025, with Phase 3 initiation planned for Q1 2026.
Show full overview
Alixorexton is Alkermes' sole Phase 3-bound candidate and the primary organic growth vector beyond the existing portfolio. Positive Phase 2 topline data from Vibrance-1 (NT1) and Vibrance-2 (NT2) were disclosed in 2025, and Vibrance-3 (IH, phase 2) remains ongoing. If the Phase 3 program fails to demonstrate efficacy, the company would rely on existing marketed products and royalty streams — including Janssen arrangements that have declined from 31% of consolidated revenues in 2023 to 9% in 2025. LUMRYZ is also subject to a royalty of 3.85% of net narcolepsy sales payable to Jazz Pharmaceuticals under the Avadel Settlement Agreement, reducing net revenue from the newly acquired asset.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
From Alkermes plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Alkermes plc
Latest news
- NEWS Q2 2026 Alkermes Plc Earnings Call Transcript - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS ALKS|Alkermes Plc|Price:50.060|Chg%:+1.720 - TradingKey — TradingKey positive
- NEWS Alkermes PLC (ALKS) Shares Fall 4.2% -- What GF Score of 64 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS ALKS Reiterated by Piper Sandler -- Price Target Raised to $65 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH Has $5.44 Million Stock Position in Alkermes plc $ALKS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerJanssen9.0%10-K Item 1: 'Revenues from our collaborative arrangements with Janssen accounted for approximately 9% ... of our consolidated revenues'
- MEDIUMCustomerBiogen / VUMERITY10-K Item 1A: 'substantial revenue from ... Biogen's sales of VUMERITY'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOWShareholders at the May 20, 2026 Annual Meeting approved amendments to the Alkermes 2018 Stock Option and Incentive Plan, increasing ordinary shares authorized for issuance by 5,900,000. Routine compensatory arrangement; no departures or appointments.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $50.59 (+11.8%), stop $42.35 (−6.8%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $50.59 (+11.8% upside). Analyst target $50.59 (+11.8%), stop $42.35 (−6.8%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $42.35.
Earnings in 4 days (event risk).
Alkermes plc trades at a P/E of 119.1 (forward 25.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
26 analysts cover ALKS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $56.
What does Alkermes plc do?Alkermes plc develops and commercializes neuroscience medicines including ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ...
Alkermes plc develops and commercializes neuroscience medicines including ARISTADA, LYBALVI, VIVITROL, and LUMRYZ (acquired via Avadel in February 2026) exclusively in the U.S. Revenue flows from direct product sales plus manufacturing fees and royalties from licensees Janssen (RISPERDAL CONSTA manufacture) and Biogen (VUMERITY); Janssen accounted for approximately 9% of 2025 consolidated revenues.