Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.2x
- ▸PEG: 2.29
HLN · Why this verdict
Why Haleon (HLN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Haleon offers a financially sound consumer health franchise with strong margins and a favorable risk/reward setup, but a death cross and sustained negative price momentum block near-term entry; the thesis requires a technical reversal before the asymmetric upside becomes actionable.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business carries operating margins of 15% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting healthy profitability, strong balance-sheet discipline, and financial quality that ranks above the sector average on most solvency and efficiency metrics. Quality breakdown | Operating margins hold at or above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score remains 8 or 9 across the next four reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue and earnings growth scores are soft, and the peer growth rank is below average; strong quality metrics without a growth catalyst may delay multiple expansion indefinitely. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with volume distribution trending against holders and a death cross in place, indicating near-term selling pressure that has not yet abated despite improving MACD readings and a neutral RSI near 45. Warnings | On-balance volume shifts to accumulation and the stock reclaims its 200-day moving average, sustained for at least four consecutive weeks within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe MACD is improving and the RSI sits at a neutral 45, both consistent with an early recovery setup; the death cross may prove a lagging indicator if the fundamental re-rating begins before the technical cross resolves. | ||
With approximately 12.6% headroom to the analyst consensus target of $10.21 and a risk/reward of roughly 3.4-to-1 in favor of upside, the price geometry provides a favorable asymmetric setup for investors who can tolerate near-term momentum weakness. Price targets | Price advances toward $10.21 within 12 months as the technical setup improves and the upside is realized. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe PEG ratio at 2.38 is elevated relative to the growth profile, which may prompt downward analyst revisions and compress the apparent upside as the target moves lower. | ||
The four-quarter earnings record is uneven — a recent in-line result, then a beat, a miss, and an in-line in the three quarters before it — producing an average positive surprise of under 2% that leaves the trajectory uncertain rather than reliably positive. Earnings | Two consecutive beats with positive surprise percentages over the next two reporting periods establish a more consistent delivery pattern. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn average surprise barely above zero means the business is broadly tracking expectations, which limits downside from an earnings-driven derating even if individual quarter variability persists. | ||
The business carries operating margins of 15% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting healthy profitability, strong balance-sheet discipline, and financial quality that ranks above the sector average on most solvency and efficiency metrics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins hold at or above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score remains 8 or 9 across the next four reporting periods.
CounterRevenue and earnings growth scores are soft, and the peer growth rank is below average; strong quality metrics without a growth catalyst may delay multiple expansion indefinitely.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with volume distribution trending against holders and a death cross in place, indicating near-term selling pressure that has not yet abated despite improving MACD readings and a neutral RSI near 45.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- On-balance volume shifts to accumulation and the stock reclaims its 200-day moving average, sustained for at least four consecutive weeks within 12 months.
CounterThe MACD is improving and the RSI sits at a neutral 45, both consistent with an early recovery setup; the death cross may prove a lagging indicator if the fundamental re-rating begins before the technical cross resolves.
With approximately 12.6% headroom to the analyst consensus target of $10.21 and a risk/reward of roughly 3.4-to-1 in favor of upside, the price geometry provides a favorable asymmetric setup for investors who can tolerate near-term momentum weakness.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances toward $10.21 within 12 months as the technical setup improves and the upside is realized.
CounterThe PEG ratio at 2.38 is elevated relative to the growth profile, which may prompt downward analyst revisions and compress the apparent upside as the target moves lower.
The four-quarter earnings record is uneven — a recent in-line result, then a beat, a miss, and an in-line in the three quarters before it — producing an average positive surprise of under 2% that leaves the trajectory uncertain rather than reliably positive.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Two consecutive beats with positive surprise percentages over the next two reporting periods establish a more consistent delivery pattern.
CounterAn average surprise barely above zero means the business is broadly tracking expectations, which limits downside from an earnings-driven derating even if individual quarter variability persists.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 9.1 |
| Op margin | 9.6 |
| Net margin | 7.3 |
| Current ratio | 2.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Rule of 40: 18 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 1.1 |
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.1 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- ▸Extreme gap down (-14.5%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.50
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.9% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:118d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.90
Upside
+19.1%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.90 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Growth at 2.0, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.90 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Death Cross Price Momentum
Trip ifPrice closes above $10.21 and holds for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming momentum has recovered.
- P2Quality Margins Piotroski
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 12% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P3Asymmetric Upside Risk Reward
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $9.07 (the current price), eliminating the upside gap.
- P4Mixed Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, establishing a pattern of consistent delivery.