Harmonic is an industry growth leader with roughly 43% year-over-year revenue expansion and a majority of earnings quarters delivering strong beats, but free cash flow is negative — consuming approximately 21% of revenue — and below-average business quality mean the 15% upside to resistance is a setup that depends heavily on growth execution to compensate for the absent cash-generation track record.
Thesis pillars
- Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality Drag→Stable
- Earnings Beat Pattern With Exception↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026
Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Technology · Communication Equipment
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (89.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (84.0%).
Harmonic Inc. is a global provider of software-based broadband access solutions (cOS) that enable cable and telco operators to deliver high-speed data, voice and video services, deriving approximately 89% of 2025 revenue from the Americas. The company's top 10 customers... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (89.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (84.0%). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Harmonic Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Harmonic (HLIT) Earnings Report: EPS Lands Above Forecast; Market Response: Shares Finish 5.21% Down for the Current Ses — Vinanet positive
- NEWS Harmonic Inc (HLIT) Stock Up 4.8% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 64/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Harmonic (NASDAQ:HLIT) Issues Earnings Results, Beats Expectations By $0.07 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Harmonic (HLIT) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Harmonic (HLIT) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicAmericas89%10-K Item 1: 'We derived approximately 89% of our revenue from the Americas in 2025.'
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers84%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to our 10 largest customers in 2025, 2024 and 2023 accounted for approximately 84%, 91% and 90% of our net revenue, respectively.'
- HIGHCustomersingle largest customer54%10-K Item 1: 'During the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, one customer accounted for 54% of our net revenue.'
- MEDIUMSupplierPlexus Services Corp.10-K Item 1: 'Plexus accounts for the majority of the products we purchase from our contract manufacturers.'
- HIGHSuppliersole-source and limited-group component suppliers10-K Item 1: 'Many components, subassemblies and modules necessary for the manufacture or integration of our products are obtained from a sole supplier or a limited group of suppliers.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-16Item 2.01MEDIUMHarmonic completed the previously disclosed sale of its Video Business to Leone Media Inc. (MediaKind) for $145 million in cash, agreeing not to compete with the business for three years.SEC filing →
- 2026-06-16Item 5.02LOWNeven Haltmayer resigned as Senior Vice President and General Manager, Video Business, effective with the closing of the Video business sale; no successor named as the role is eliminated with the divested unit.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (89.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (84.0%). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $14.04 (+30.9%), stop $9.98 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $14.04 (+30.9% upside). Analyst target $14.04 (+30.9%), stop $9.98 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $9.98.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (89.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (84.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Harmonic Inc. trades at a P/E of 41.3 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts cover HLIT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $16.
What does Harmonic Inc. do?Harmonic Inc. is a global provider of software-based broadband access solutions (cOS) that enable cable and telco...
Harmonic Inc. is a global provider of software-based broadband access solutions (cOS) that enable cable and telco operators to deliver high-speed data, voice and video services, deriving approximately 89% of 2025 revenue from the Americas. The company's top 10 customers accounted for approximately 84% of net revenue in 2025, with a single customer alone representing 54%. On June 16, 2026, Harmonic completed the $145 million sale of its Video business to MediaKind, narrowing its focus to the Broadband segment going forward.