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HLIHoulihan Lokey, Inc.Hold5.6·$137.89+1.67%
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Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $137.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Negative momentum.

Houlihan Lokey is a global independent investment bank providing M&A, capital markets, financial restructuring, and valuation advisory services through three segments: Corporate Finance, Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory. Revenue is earned primarily... Read more

$137.89+8.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#25 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.03%(5y avg 1.72%)Payout38.59%sustainable
Stop $129.82Target $150.07(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$172.50+25.1%8 analysts
$150.07our TP
$137.89price
$172.50mean
$200

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $137.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.8%
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.2
P/E (Fwd)14.6
Mkt Cap$9.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn16.3%
ROE18.3%
Rev Growth-4.6%
Beta0.95
Dividend2.03%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.26bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$240+74.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWGeographicinternational operations29%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal 2025, we earned approximately 28.8% of our revenue from our international operations.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.8
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.4
Value Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
5.3
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $133.83Resistance $153.09

Price Targets

$130
$150
A.Upside+8.8%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $137.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $150.07 (+8.8%), stop $129.82 (−6.2%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $150.07 (+8.8% upside). Target $150.07 (+8.8%), stop $129.82 (−6.2%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Stop-loss: $129.82.

What are the risks of investing in HLI?

Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is HLI overvalued or undervalued?

Houlihan Lokey, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.2 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HLI?

14 analysts cover HLI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $173.

What does Houlihan Lokey, Inc. do?Houlihan Lokey is a global independent investment bank providing M&A, capital markets, financial restructuring, and...

Houlihan Lokey is a global independent investment bank providing M&A, capital markets, financial restructuring, and valuation advisory services through three segments: Corporate Finance, Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory. Revenue is earned primarily from contingent advisory fees tied to transaction closings, serving corporations, financial sponsors, and government agencies worldwide. As of March 31, 2025, it had 1,893 financial professionals across 35 offices globally.

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