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HGTYHagerty, Inc.Sell4.7·$10.84-0.46%
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Hagerty, Inc. (HGTY) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. At $10.84, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%).

Hagerty is the leading collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurer operating as an MGA (with owned reinsurer Hagerty Re) and marketplace (Broad Arrow auctions, digital platform). Insurance segment represented 92% of 2025 revenue; commission revenue from the Markel Alliance... Read more

$10.84+3.2% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#24 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield9.24%
Stop $10.08Target $11.19(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$12.86+18.6%7 analysts
$11.19our TP
$10.84price
$12.86mean
$15

Sell if holding. At $10.84, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%)
Thin upside margin: 3.2%
Weak overall score: 4.7/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.4
P/E (Fwd)19.1
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA4.2
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth-5.0%
Beta0.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV80%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyMarkel/Essentia91%
    10-K Item 1: 'commission revenue associated with the Markel Alliance Agreement was $436.8 million...representing 91%, 93%, and 95%, respectively, of total commission revenue.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
    Michael R. Heaton resigned from Hagerty Board (Markel's designee) effective April 13, 2026; Henrik W. Bjørnstad appointed as Markel's new Board designee. No disagreement. Board accelerated vesting of 10,230 RSUs granted to Heaton.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.7
Growth Rank
1.0
Quality Rank
2.4

Revenue shrinking — -5.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.2
Declining revenue: -5%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.98Resistance $11.24

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HGTY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $10.84, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $10.08. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HGTY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.19 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $10.08. Stop-loss: $10.08.

What are the risks of investing in HGTY?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Markel/Essentia (91.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Weak overall score: 4.7/10.

Is HGTY overvalued or undervalued?

Hagerty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.4 (forward 19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HGTY?

14 analysts cover HGTY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Hagerty, Inc. do?Hagerty is the leading collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurer operating as an MGA (with owned reinsurer Hagerty...

Hagerty is the leading collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurer operating as an MGA (with owned reinsurer Hagerty Re) and marketplace (Broad Arrow auctions, digital platform). Insurance segment represented 92% of 2025 revenue; commission revenue from the Markel Alliance Agreement (Essentia carrier) represented 91% of total commission revenue. Hagerty Re assumed 80% quota share of Essentia risk as of Dec 31, 2025, increasing to 100% in 2026.

Related stocks: SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) · PLMR (Palomar Holdings, Inc.) · ORI (Old Republic International Corp) · STC (Stewart Information Services Co) · MCY (Mercury General Corporation)
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