A property and casualty insurer combining a quality score well above the investment threshold — driven by 38% return on equity, 33% net margins, and 148% free cash flow conversion — with four consecutive earnings beats averaging 34% above consensus and roughly 28% upside to the analyst consensus target represents one of the more compelling quality-value combinations in the current screen, offset by elevated leverage and downward-trending earnings estimates.
Thesis pillars
- Favorable Asymmetry 4x Reward Risk→Stable
- Deep Value Forward Pe 9x↑Improving
- High Quality 148pct Fcf Conversion→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Wait for pullback to $187.98. At $195.24 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $187.98 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
HCI Group underwrites homeowners and property casualty insurance primarily in Florida through two subsidiaries — HCPCI and TypTap Insurance Company — and manages two consolidated reciprocal insurance exchanges. Revenue is generated predominately in the State of Florida, derived... Read more
Wait for pullback to $187.98. At $195.24 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $187.98 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.3 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 0.5x at spot < 1.5 minimum; Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window); SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Financial Services:count=10:cap=10. Wait for improvement. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d and sector concentration cap sector=financial services count=10 cap=10. Suitability: speculative.
About HCI Group, Inc.
About HCI Group, Inc.
HCI Group's insurance operations are predominately concentrated in Florida, writing homeowners and property casualty policies through admitted carriers HCPCI and TypTap Insurance Company plus two consolidated reciprocal exchanges. The company employed 594 full-time workers at December 31, 2025, completed the Exzeo IPO on the NYSE (symbol: XZO) in November 2025 while retaining approximately 82.5% of outstanding shares, and is subject to examination by Florida's FLOIR whenever deemed appropriate.
HCI earns insurance premiums on homeowners and commercial residential policies in Florida and, to a lesser extent, northeast and southeast states, with claims exposure concentrated in the Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm season running June 1 through November 30 each year. Reinsurance contracts renew June 1 annually, so changes in reinsurance pricing flow through earnings beginning that date; the company targets reinsurers rated 'A-' or better by A.M. Best or requires full collateralization. A substantial portion of historical premium volume originated from policy assumptions under Citizens depopulation programs; ongoing organic renewals and selective new assumptions represent the primary growth path. Exzeo contributes fee revenue through its proprietary SAMS, Harmony, ClaimColony, and AtlasViewer software platforms sold to affiliated and, since the November 2025 IPO, to unaffiliated carriers. The real estate segment holds marinas, retail shopping centers, and corporate office parks in Florida that generate lease income from unaffiliated tenants.
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Florida's regulatory and catastrophe environment poses a structural concentration risk for HCI. HCPCI and TTIC each hold a Demotech 'A Exceptional' financial strength rating accepted by major Florida mortgage companies, but neither holds an A.M. Best rating that some mortgage lenders require — a gap that could limit policy growth if lenders impose stricter requirements. The 10-K notes that conditions affecting Florida would have a more pronounced effect on HCI than on insurance companies that are more geographically diversified, and that reinsurance availability and cost — subject to prevailing market conditions beyond the company's control — represent the principal external variable moderating catastrophe exposure.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
From HCI Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — HCI Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS HCI Group (HCI) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS HCI Group (HCI) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com negative
- NEWS HCI Group (HCI) rises higher than market: Key facts - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Implied volatility surging for HCI Group stock options - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Implied Volatility Surging for HCI Group Stock Options - Zacks Investment Research — Zacks Investment Research negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicFlorida10-K Item 1: 'The entirety of our revenue is generated in the U.S. and predominately in the State of Florida.'
- MEDIUMCustomerCitizens10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of our historical revenue has been generated from policies assumed from Citizens and other insurance companies'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $187.98. At $195.24 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $187.98 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.3 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 0.5x at spot < 1.5 minimum; Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window); SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Financial Services:count=10:cap=10. Wait for improvement. Target $205.42 (+5.2%), stop $177.72 (−9.9%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $205.42 (+5.2% upside). Target $205.42 (+5.2%), stop $177.72 (−9.9%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $177.72.
Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Negative momentum.
HCI Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.4 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
10 analysts cover HCI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $242.
What does HCI Group, Inc. do?HCI Group underwrites homeowners and property casualty insurance primarily in Florida through two subsidiaries — HCPCI...
HCI Group underwrites homeowners and property casualty insurance primarily in Florida through two subsidiaries — HCPCI and TypTap Insurance Company — and manages two consolidated reciprocal insurance exchanges. Revenue is generated predominately in the State of Florida, derived from organic renewals and Citizens policy assumptions. The company majority-owns Exzeo (82.5% after November 2025 IPO), an insurtech providing insurance software platforms.