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CRVLCorVel Corp.Sell5.1·$81.58
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend — trading below its 200-day moving average with a negative slope and falling volume accumulation, with a death-cross pattern in effect — and has missed earnings estimates in all four available reporting periods, making a near-term recovery difficult to justify on the evidence at hand.

Thesis pillars

  • Return On Equity Sustainability→Stable
  • Confirmed Price Downtrend→Stable
  • Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed May 22, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CorVel Corp. (CRVL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Earnings in 4 days (2026-11-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $81.58: Near 52-week high (4.2% away); Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

CorVel Corporation provides workers' compensation managed care and medical cost containment services — including bill review, PPO network management, utilization management, case management, and pharmacy services — nationwide to insurers, TPAs, and self-insured employers.... Read more

$81.58+2.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#15 of 15 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.23%
Stop $77.10Resistance target $83.45A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $81.58: Near 52-week high (4.2% away); Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/9 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About CorVel Corp.

About CorVel Corp.

CorVel Corporation delivers medical cost containment and managed care services for workers' compensation, automobile insurance, and group health claims through a nationwide branch network backed by a primary data center in Portland, Oregon, and a redundancy center in Lone Mountain, Nevada. The proprietary PPO network exceeded 1.2 million providers at March 31, 2026. No single customer accounted for 10% or more of revenue in fiscal years 2026, 2025, or 2024, with clients spanning insurers, TPAs, government entities, and self-insured employers.

CorVel earns service fees through three delivery modes: fully integrated claims-management programs for self-insured employers seeking a single partner, discrete standalone modules for large insurance carriers or TPAs, and targeted add-on services that extend existing client workflows. The bill review platform uses an AI rules engine with over 100 million individual rules to automate claim adjudication and generate savings reports via the CareMC portal. Pharmacy services, directed care networks, case management, and vocational rehabilitation round out the service stack. Competitors include national managed care providers, TPAs, PPOs, and insurance carriers that perform managed care in-house. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 2.34 million occupational injuries in 2024, below the pre-pandemic 2019 count of 2.69 million, though CorVel has expanded market share even as total claims volume remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Show full overview

Workers' compensation managed care is subject to state-specific statutes and court decisions that vary extensively across jurisdictions, governing claims handling, benefit amounts, and cost-control strategies. The 10-K identifies legislative reform risk — states have considered but not enacted provisions that would allow employers to designate HMOs or PPOs to cover workers' compensation claimants, which could intensify competition from health plans with existing managed-care capabilities. In May 2026, CorVel disclosed via Form 8-K that Michael Combs, Chairman, CEO, and President for 34 years, will transition to Executive Chair effective July 1, 2026, with Sarah Scott appointed as incoming CEO and President.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

From CorVel Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 20264d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Wide economic moat
Risks
Near 52-week high (4.2% away)
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.4
P/E (Fwd)—
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA21.1
Profit Mgn11.7%
ROE30.7%
Rev Growth10.7%
Beta1.05
DividendNone
Rating analysts—

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV45%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Michael G. Combs (CEO, President, Chairman) transitioning to Executive Chair effective July 1, 2026. Sarah Scott appointed CEO and President effective July 1, 2026. Clean handoff; Combs continues as Executive Chair advising on transition.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MEarnings in 4 days
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)INSIDER 0.40%=MODERATEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.8>=4.5NEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $74.37Resistance $85.15

Price Targets

$77
$83
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRVL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $81.58: Near 52-week high (4.2% away); Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $77.10. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRVL stock price target?

Resistance target: $83.45 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $77.10. Stop-loss: $77.10.

What are the risks of investing in CRVL?

Near 52-week high (4.2% away); Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Is CRVL overvalued or undervalued?

CorVel Corp. trades at a P/E of 36.4 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

0
What does CorVel Corp. do?CorVel Corporation provides workers' compensation managed care and medical cost containment services — including bill...

CorVel Corporation provides workers' compensation managed care and medical cost containment services — including bill review, PPO network management, utilization management, case management, and pharmacy services — nationwide to insurers, TPAs, and self-insured employers. Revenue is fee-based with no single client exceeding 10% of revenues in fiscal years 2026, 2025, or 2024.

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