Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.8 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
GSHD · Why this verdict
Why Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 21% YoY, with the latest quarter at about $113.4M versus $94.0M a year earlier, backing a growth score of 8.8. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stay above $105M, in line with the $104.8M next-quarter estimate, and keep growing above 15% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of $104.8M is below the latest $113.4M, and a hard insurance market can slow policy growth. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 reports with none missed, for an average surprise of +32.1%, including $0.64 versus $0.48 in July. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-09 report and stay at or above $0.45 per quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe average is lifted by an 82% beat against a low $0.20 estimate, and the inline result in October 2025 shows beats are not guaranteed. | ||
Financial health is strong with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a quality score of 7.2, backed by a return on assets score of 9.2. Quality breakdown | Quality should stay above 7.0 and the Piotroski score at 8 or higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin scores only 4.4 and gross margin 5.9, so profitability is moderate and could be squeezed if commissions fall. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day average, which is falling 7.2% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend despite rising on-balance volume. Bear case | Price should reclaim its 200-day average and hold above the $41.55 stop level over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and a MACD score of 10 show accumulation, which often precedes a trend reversal. | ||
Insiders were net sellers of about $8.2M (0.473% of market cap) over 90 days, with 23 sales against 7 buys, which weakens the signal from the earnings record. Insider breakdown | Net insider selling should fall below 0.2% of market cap over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSales of $20.1M were partly offset by $11.9M of buying, and executives often sell on schedule for diversification. | ||
Revenue is growing 21% YoY, with the latest quarter at about $113.4M versus $94.0M a year earlier, backing a growth score of 8.8.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay above $105M, in line with the $104.8M next-quarter estimate, and keep growing above 15% YoY.
CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of $104.8M is below the latest $113.4M, and a hard insurance market can slow policy growth.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 reports with none missed, for an average surprise of +32.1%, including $0.64 versus $0.48 in July.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-09 report and stay at or above $0.45 per quarter.
CounterThe average is lifted by an 82% beat against a low $0.20 estimate, and the inline result in October 2025 shows beats are not guaranteed.
Financial health is strong with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a quality score of 7.2, backed by a return on assets score of 9.2.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality should stay above 7.0 and the Piotroski score at 8 or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterNet margin scores only 4.4 and gross margin 5.9, so profitability is moderate and could be squeezed if commissions fall.
The stock trades below its 200-day average, which is falling 7.2% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend despite rising on-balance volume.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day average and hold above the $41.55 stop level over the next two quarters.
CounterRising on-balance volume and a MACD score of 10 show accumulation, which often precedes a trend reversal.
Insiders were net sellers of about $8.2M (0.473% of market cap) over 90 days, with 23 sales against 7 buys, which weakens the signal from the earnings record.
↓DeterioratingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Net insider selling should fall below 0.2% of market cap over the next two quarters.
CounterSales of $20.1M were partly offset by $11.9M of buying, and executives often sell on schedule for diversification.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 9.2 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 9.4 |
| Net margin | 4.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 3.2 |
| holder change | 7.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,147,098 (0.069% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.1 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
- ▸High IV: 92%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.48
Upside
+16.7%
Downside
11.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 11d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.8; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1, Momentum at 4.1, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3High Quality Financials
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 of 9 from the current 9.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice falls below $41.55, the stop level, from the current $48.50.
- P5Net Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 1% of market cap over 90 days from the current 0.47%.