A 26% revenue decline, sub-floor business quality at 2.3, negative free cash flow, a 21% short interest, and a price that has essentially reached its analyst target with only 0.2% remaining upside combine to make the risk profile untenable; the setup warrants exiting any existing position.
Thesis pillars
- Severe Revenue Contraction↑Improving
- Quality Floor Breach Cash Burn→Stable
- Elevated Bearish Market Positioning↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026
Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Chemicals
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Green Plains, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Green Plains Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call — fiscal.ai Oct 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Green Plains Launches 'Farm Forward' Initiative — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Transcript: Green Plains Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call — benzinga Oct 7, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Green Plains Q2 EPS $0.83 Beats $0.46 Estimate, Sales $446.224M Miss $519.933M Estimate — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS ManpowerGroup Posts Upbeat Q2 Earnings, Joins Docebo, Zentalis Pharmaceuticals And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Fri — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:32Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -19.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $12.96. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $16.09 (+17.3% upside). Prior stop was $12.96. Stop-loss: $12.96.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).
Green Plains, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.5 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover GPRE with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $19.
What does Green Plains, Inc. do?Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments,...
Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil. It is also involved in the grain procurement and commodity marketing businesses; and marketing ethanol for a third-party producer, as well as buys and sells ethanol, distiller grains, renewable corn oil, grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. In addition, the company provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.