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Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0.

Global Net Lease is an internally managed REIT owning 820 net lease properties (97% occupied, 40.7M sq ft) across the U.S., Canada, and Europe, split 46% Industrial/Distribution, 27% Retail, and 27% Office by straight-line rent. The portfolio is diversified across 231 tenants... Read more

$9.45+1.1% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#7 of 7 REIT - Diversified
Stop $9.11Target $9.55(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$10.00+5.8%8 analysts
$9.55our TP
$9.45price
$10.00mean
$8
$12

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-56.2
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA11.8
Profit Mgn-45.5%
ROE-7.1%
Rev Growth-15.1%
Beta1.06
Dividend7.95%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.09bullish
IV106%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMPropertyOffice segment27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 27% of our annualized straight-line rent (calculated as of December 31, 2025) is attributable to our Office segment'
  • MEDIUMGeographicMichigan13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Michigan| | 13%'
  • LOWGeographicUnited Kingdom10%
    10-K Item 1A: 'United Kingdom| | 10%'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOW
    P. Sue Perrotty and Governor Edward Rendell will not stand for re-election at GNL's 2026 Annual Meeting, retiring at conclusion of current terms. Notification given April 1, 2026. No disagreement with the Company cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -15.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -15%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
4.3
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.10Resistance $9.74

Price Targets

$9
$10
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GNL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $9.11. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the GNL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.55 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $9.11. Stop-loss: $9.11.

What are the risks of investing in GNL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

Is GNL overvalued or undervalued?

Global Net Lease, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -56.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GNL?

13 analysts cover GNL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Global Net Lease, Inc. do?Global Net Lease is an internally managed REIT owning 820 net lease properties (97% occupied, 40.7M sq ft) across the...

Global Net Lease is an internally managed REIT owning 820 net lease properties (97% occupied, 40.7M sq ft) across the U.S., Canada, and Europe, split 46% Industrial/Distribution, 27% Retail, and 27% Office by straight-line rent. The portfolio is diversified across 231 tenants and 71 industries with no single tenant exceeding 6% of income.

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