Four consecutive earnings beats and exceptional cash conversion — free cash flow running at 213% of net income — make the valuation look attractive at 13.4 times operating cash flow, but a confirmed price downtrend with a moving average declining at 5.3% per month and a death cross mean the fundamental quality has not yet translated into price recovery.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Valuation→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Record→Stable
- Confirmed Price Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
FirstService Corporation (FSV) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Real Estate · Real Estate Services
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $137.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
FirstService Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides residential property management and other essential property services to residential and commercial customers in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: FirstService Residential and... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $137.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-13Recent Developments — FirstService Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS FirstService (TSX:FSV) Draws Attention After Technical Milestone - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media positive
- NEWS FirstService earnings up next: Roofing growth in focus By Investing.com - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada neutral
- NEWS FirstService earnings up next: Roofing growth in focus By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria neutral
- NEWS FirstService (TSE:FSV) Share Price Crosses Above 200 Day Moving Average - Should You Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Is It Time To Reassess FirstService (TSX:FSV) After Recent Share Price Weakness? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-09-14T05:21:57Z.
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Thesis
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Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $137.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $131.38. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $151.27 (+9.8% upside). Prior stop was $131.38. Stop-loss: $131.38.
Thin upside margin: 9.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
FirstService Corporation trades at a P/E of 38.6 (forward 20.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover FSV with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $174.
What does FirstService Corporation do?FirstService Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides residential property management and other essential...
FirstService Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides residential property management and other essential property services to residential and commercial customers in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: FirstService Residential and FirstService Brands. The FirstService Residential segment operates as a full-service property manager and provides a range of ancillary services, including on-site staffing for building engineering and maintenance, full-service amenity management, security, concierge and front desk personnel; proprietary banking and insurance products; and energy conservation and management solutions. This segment serves condominiums, co-operatives, homeowner associations, master-planned communities, active adult and lifestyle communities, and other residential developments governed by common interest or multi-unit residential community associations. Its FirstService Brands segment offers property services to residential and commercial customers in North America through company-owned operations and franchise systems under the First Onsite Property Restoration, Paul Davis Restoration, Roofing Corp of America, Century Fire Protection, California Closets, CertaPro Painters, Floor Coverings International, and Pillar to Post Home Inspectors brands. This segment also provides light restoration services, including full-service water, fire and mold cleanup, construction rebuild, and restoration services; painting services; custom-designed and installed closet and home storage solutions; home inspection services; and floor covering design and installation services. FirstService Corporation was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.