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NMRKNewmark Group, Inc.Sell6.7·$12.06
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Newmark Group has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and 27% year-over-year revenue growth in commercial real estate services, but a confirmed death-cross technical pattern, weak momentum, and falling on-balance volume signal that near-term price recovery is not yet established.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory→Stable
  • Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
  • Death Cross Technical Blockage→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Sector Rotation edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate Services

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.06: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and corporate occupiers across capital markets, leasing, loan origination, servicing, property management, and occupier solutions. The company generated approximately $3.3... Read more

$12.06+25.0% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#1 of 17 Real Estate Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield30.16%
IncomeYield1.99%(5y avg 0.75%)Payout18.99%
Stop $11.22Analyst target $15.08(−13% haircut)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst consensus$17.33+43.7%6 analysts
$15.08Analyst target
$12.06price
$17.33mean
$20

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.06: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 2026Date unconfirmed· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.3
P/E (Fwd)5.8
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn4.1%
ROE11.1%
Rev Growth17.0%
Beta1.76
Dividend1.99%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV87%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicUnited States
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived the large majority of our total revenues on a consolidated basis for the year ended December 31, 2025 from our operations in the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.7>=5.5A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.25Resistance $13.15

Price Targets

$11
$15
A.Upside+25.0%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts13
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$17

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (Date unconfirmed)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMRK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.06: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Prior stop was $11.22. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMRK stock price target?

Analyst target: $15.08 (+25.0% upside). Prior stop was $11.22. Stop-loss: $11.22.

What are the risks of investing in NMRK?

Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NMRK overvalued or undervalued?

Newmark Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.3 (forward 5.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NMRK?

13 analysts cover NMRK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Newmark Group, Inc. do?Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and...

Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and corporate occupiers across capital markets, leasing, loan origination, servicing, property management, and occupier solutions. The company generated approximately $3.3 billion in revenues in 2025, with the top 10 clients representing about 9.1% of total consolidated revenue.

Related stocks: JLL (Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated) · REAX (Real REMAX Group Inc.) · IHS (IHS Holding Limited) · MMI (Marcus & Millichap, Inc.) · CSGP (CoStar Group, Inc.)
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