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FSKFS KKR Capital Corp.Sell5.4·$10.55-1.81%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The asset manager screens attractively valued at roughly 7 times forward earnings, but four consecutive earnings misses, a 24% revenue decline, and a hard death-cross technical block combine to make the low valuation a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals rather than a contrarian opportunity.

Thesis pillars

  • Low Valuation Potentially AttractiveStable
  • Four Quarter Earnings Miss StreakStable
  • Revenue Declining SharplyStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 6 days (2026-08-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Adviser.

FS KKR Capital Corp. is an externally managed business development company (BDC) with approximately $13.7 billion in total assets at December 31, 2025, focused on senior secured debt investments in private U.S. middle-market companies. Investment decisions are made by FS/KKR... Read more

$10.55-5.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#142 of 239 Asset Management
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.70%
IncomeYield20.93%(5y avg 14.28%)Payout7000.00%at-risk
Stop $9.98Target $10.95(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$11.50+9.0%10 analysts
$10.95our TP
$10.55price
$11.50mean
$10
$15

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Adviser. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-30
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Adviser
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)6.9
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn-38.7%
ROE-9.3%
Rev Growth-24.0%
Beta0.90
Dividend20.93%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.29bearish
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartythe Adviser
    10-K Item 1A: 'Because we have no employees, we depend on the investment expertise, skill and network of business contacts of the Adviser.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.4
Growth Rank
0.5
Value Rank
9.1

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.1
Dividend Safety
4.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MEarnings in 6 daysYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.29Resistance $11.17

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside-5.1%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Adviser. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $9.98. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FSK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.95 (-5.1% upside). Prior stop was $9.98. Stop-loss: $9.98.

What are the risks of investing in FSK?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Adviser; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is FSK overvalued or undervalued?

FS KKR Capital Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FSK?

15 analysts cover FSK with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $12.

What does FS KKR Capital Corp. do?FS KKR Capital Corp. is an externally managed business development company (BDC) with approximately $13.7 billion in...

FS KKR Capital Corp. is an externally managed business development company (BDC) with approximately $13.7 billion in total assets at December 31, 2025, focused on senior secured debt investments in private U.S. middle-market companies. Investment decisions are made by FS/KKR Advisor, LLC, a joint venture between KKR Credit and Future Standard. The BDC has no employees of its own and relies entirely on the Adviser for all investment and operational management.

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