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FBNCFirst BancorpHold5.8·$61.78+0.78%
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First Bancorp (FBNC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North Carolina and South Carolina; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

First Bancorp is the fourth-largest commercial bank holding company headquartered in North Carolina, operating 113 branches (100 in NC, 13 in SC) with $12.7 billion in total assets and $10.7 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025. It provides commercial and retail banking,... Read more

$61.78-1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#81 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.55%(5y avg 2.16%)Payout31.74%sustainable
Stop $58.78Target $61.18(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$66.35+7.4%5 analysts
$61.18our TP
$61.78price
$66.35mean
$68

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North Carolina and South Carolina; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North Carolina and South Carolina
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.4% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.1
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn30.8%
ROE7.6%
Rev Growth13.9%
Beta0.83
Dividend1.55%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.11bullish
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$65+5.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth Carolina and South Carolina
    10-K Item 1: 'Because we operate primarily within North Carolina and South Carolina, the economic conditions of these areas could have a material impact on the Company'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Michael G. Mayer, President of First Bancorp and CEO of First Bank, retired effective February 28, 2026, in connection with the succession plan. No named successor announced; Mr. Mayer continues as a board director.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-27Item 5.02LOW
    Director Mary Clara Capel retired from both boards effective January 27, 2026. No disagreement with operations cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.1
52w Position
9.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.8
Quality Rank
3.4
Growth Rank
5.6
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $56.66Resistance $62.43

Price Targets

$59
$61
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FBNC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North Carolina and South Carolina; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $61.18 (-1.0%), stop $58.78 (−5.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FBNC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $61.18 (-1.0% upside). Target $61.18 (-1.0%), stop $58.78 (−5.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $58.78.

What are the risks of investing in FBNC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North Carolina and South Carolina; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.4% away).

Is FBNC overvalued or undervalued?

First Bancorp trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FBNC?

10 analysts cover FBNC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $66.

What does First Bancorp do?First Bancorp is the fourth-largest commercial bank holding company headquartered in North Carolina, operating 113...

First Bancorp is the fourth-largest commercial bank holding company headquartered in North Carolina, operating 113 branches (100 in NC, 13 in SC) with $12.7 billion in total assets and $10.7 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025. It provides commercial and retail banking, mortgage origination, and wealth management services primarily to individuals and small-to-medium businesses in the Carolinas.

Related stocks: INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation)
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