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Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $64.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud.

Etsy operates two online marketplaces: the Etsy marketplace (10.5B GMS in 2025, 87.8% of total) connecting artisan sellers with global buyers, and Depop fashion resale (1.1B GMS, pending sale to eBay for 1.2B). Revenue comes from transaction fees, payment processing fees, and... Read more

$64.34+8.0% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#10 of 18 Internet Retail
Stop $59.84Target $69.46(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$64.50+0.2%26 analysts
$69.46our TP
$64.34price
$64.50mean
$47
$83

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $64.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.80)
Positive momentum
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.7
P/E (Fwd)9.1
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA17.7
Profit Mgn9.8%
ROE
Rev Growth3.1%
Beta1.77
DividendNone
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$30-53.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierGoogle Cloud
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on Google Cloud for a substantial portion of the computing, storage, data processing, networking, and other services for the Etsy Marketplace'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.3
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 8.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $48.65Resistance $70.88

Price Targets

$60
$69
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ETSY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $64.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $59.84. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ETSY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.46 (+8.0% upside). Prior stop was $59.84. Stop-loss: $59.84.

What are the risks of investing in ETSY?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is ETSY overvalued or undervalued?

Etsy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ETSY?

39 analysts cover ETSY with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $65.

What does Etsy, Inc. do?Etsy operates two online marketplaces: the Etsy marketplace (10.5B GMS in 2025, 87.8% of total) connecting artisan...

Etsy operates two online marketplaces: the Etsy marketplace (10.5B GMS in 2025, 87.8% of total) connecting artisan sellers with global buyers, and Depop fashion resale (1.1B GMS, pending sale to eBay for 1.2B). Revenue comes from transaction fees, payment processing fees, and listing fees.

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