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ENSGThe Ensign Group, Inc.Sell5.4·$147.13-2.98%
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The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $147.13 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%); Negative news sentiment (-0.56).

Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries, generating approximately 95.6% of revenue from skilled nursing care. Revenue is derived primarily from Medicaid (45.8%) and Medicare (24.7%) government programs;... Read more

$147.13+30.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#17 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.29%
IncomeYield0.17%(5y avg 0.21%)Payout4.15%sustainable
Stop $137.33Target $191.75(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$220.40+49.8%5 analysts
$191.75our TP
$147.13price
$220.40mean
$230

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $147.13 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%); Negative news sentiment (-0.56). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 20, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and news legal. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202642d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Analyst upside: 30%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%)
Negative news sentiment (-0.56)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.7
P/E (Fwd)18.2
Mkt Cap$8.9B
EV/EBITDA18.8
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE16.9%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta0.68
Dividend0.17%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.81neutral
IV78%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductskilled nursing facilities96%
    10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 95.6% of our revenue from our skilled nursing facilities'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryMedicaid46%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Medicaid is our largest source of revenue, accounting for 45.8% and 46.0% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryMedicare24%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 23.7% and 24.9% of our service revenue from the Medicare programs for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Vol Acceleration
2.1
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weaknessVolume surge (2.9x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5NEWS LEGALA.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 42d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Moderate
RSI
20 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $141.58Resistance $181.94

Price Targets

$137
$192
A.Upside+30.3%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! NEWS:LEGAL

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (42d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ENSG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $147.13 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%); Negative news sentiment (-0.56). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 20, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $137.33. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ENSG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $191.75 (+30.3% upside). Prior stop was $137.33. Stop-loss: $137.33.

What are the risks of investing in ENSG?

Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%); Negative news sentiment (-0.56); Negative momentum.

Is ENSG overvalued or undervalued?

The Ensign Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 18.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ENSG?

11 analysts cover ENSG with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $220.

What does The Ensign Group, Inc. do?Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries,...

Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries, generating approximately 95.6% of revenue from skilled nursing care. Revenue is derived primarily from Medicaid (45.8%) and Medicare (24.7%) government programs; the company also owns 158 real estate properties through its captive REIT, Standard Bearer.

Related stocks: THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.) · AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.)
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