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EGOEldorado Gold CorporationSell5.4·$34.46
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Eldorado shows a high-quality franchise with broad competitive advantages, exceptional reported growth, and near-perfect financial-health scores, but free cash flow is negative despite strong reported earnings and commodity-cycle timing risk leaves forward estimates vulnerable to mean-reversion.

Thesis pillars

  • Commodity Cycle Peak Estimates Risk↓Deteriorating
  • Wide Moat High Quality Franchise→Stable
  • Exceptional Revenue Earnings Growth→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Sector Rotation edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.46: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of mineral products primarily in Turkey, Canada, and Greece. It primarily produces gold, as well as silver, lead, and zinc. The company holds a 100% interest in... Read more

$34.46+17.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#32 of 44 Gold
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-5.05%
IncomeYield0.88%(5y avg 0.41%)Payout5.23%sustainable
Stop $32.05Analyst target $40.31(−13% haircut)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst consensus$46.33+34.5%6 analysts
$40.31Analyst target
$34.46price
$46.33mean
$54

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.46: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 2026Date unconfirmed· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 36%
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative news sentiment (-0.67)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.0
P/E (Fwd)6.9
Mkt Cap$9.0B
EV/EBITDA8.9
Profit Mgn29.8%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth7.9%
Beta1.51
Dividend0.88%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV74%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.3
Quality Rank
3.9
Value Rank
4.2

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.4
Revenue Growth
4.5
GatesMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.67Resistance $39.02

Price Targets

$32
$40
A.Upside+17.0%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts14
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$46

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (Date unconfirmed)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EGO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.46: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $32.05. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EGO stock price target?

Analyst target: $40.31 (+17.0% upside). Prior stop was $32.05. Stop-loss: $32.05.

What are the risks of investing in EGO?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative news sentiment (-0.67).

Is EGO overvalued or undervalued?

Eldorado Gold Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EGO?

14 analysts cover EGO with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Eldorado Gold Corporation do?Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of...

Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of mineral products primarily in Turkey, Canada, and Greece. It primarily produces gold, as well as silver, lead, and zinc. The company holds a 100% interest in the Kisladag and Efemçukuru mines located in Turkey; Lamaque complex located in Quebec, Canada; Olympias located in northern Greece; and Stratoni, Skouries, Perama Hill, and Sapes gold mines located in Greece. The company was formerly known as Eldorado Corporation Ltd. and changed its name to Eldorado Gold Corporation in April 1996. Eldorado Gold Corporation was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.)
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