Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. At $148.59, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.0): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: Chili's brand.
Brinker International owns, operates, and franchises Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy restaurants, with Chili's averaging $4.5M annual net sales per Company-owned location in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from restaurant food and beverage sales and franchise... Read more
Sell if holding. At $148.59, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.0): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: Chili's brand. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 103d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductChili's brand10-K Item 1A: 'since we depend heavily on the Chili's brand for a majority of our revenues, unfavorable publicity relating to one or more Chili's restaurants could have a material adverse effect on the Chili's brand'
- MEDIUMGeographicTexas19%10-K Item 1A: 'A high concentration of our Company-owned restaurants are located in Texas, Florida and California comprising 18.9%, 11.8% and 9.2%, respectively, as of June 25, 2025'
- LOWGeographicFlorida12%10-K Item 1A: 'A high concentration of our Company-owned restaurants are located in Texas, Florida and California comprising 18.9%, 11.8% and 9.2%, respectively, as of June 25, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOWGeorge Felix promoted to EVP and Chief Marketing Officer at Brinker International effective February 26, 2026, with expanded oversight of marketing for both Chili's and Maggiano's. Previously SVP/CMO for Chili's brand since July 2022. Annual base salary $600K.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $148.59, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.0): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: Chili's brand. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $138.74. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $168.18 (+12.7% upside). Prior stop was $138.74. Stop-loss: $138.74.
Concentration risk — Product: Chili's brand; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.0): -1.5; Weak growth.
Brinker International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.8 (forward 12.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover EAT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $187.
What does Brinker International, Inc. do?Brinker International owns, operates, and franchises Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy restaurants, with...
Brinker International owns, operates, and franchises Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy restaurants, with Chili's averaging $4.5M annual net sales per Company-owned location in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from restaurant food and beverage sales and franchise royalties, with the Chili's brand generating the substantial majority of revenues across U.S. and 27 other countries.