Ducommun's stock has moved above its price target while carrying a quality deficit, declining revenue, and near-total concentration in a single end market — a combination that makes the current setup unattractive despite a consistent four-quarter earnings beat record.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Resilience↑Improving
- Extreme Customer Concentration→Stable
- Revenue Decline With High Leverage→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $168.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Ducommun manufactures aerospace and defense electronics and structural components through Electronic Systems and Structural Systems segments, with A&D end-markets representing 96% of 2025 net revenues. Boeing (13%) and RTX (18%) were the largest customers; the top 10 customers... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $168.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and SEC filing concern and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Ducommun Incorporated
About Ducommun Incorporated
Defense and military/space programs generated 58% of Ducommun's 2025 net revenues, commercial aerospace 38%, and industrial end-markets 4%, for a combined A&D concentration of 96%. Backlog totaled $1,202.9 million at December 31, 2025, up from $1,060.8 million a year earlier, with remaining performance obligations of $1,106.0 million; the company anticipates recognizing approximately $774 million — 70% of that total — during 2026.
Ducommun earns revenue through firm fixed-price contracts across two segments: Electronic Systems, which designs and manufactures cable assemblies, printed circuit board assemblies, radar enclosures, avionics racks, and lightning diversion systems; and Structural Systems, which produces aerostructure components, composite bonded assemblies, wing spoilers, rotor blades, and ammunition handling systems. The company operates as a Tier Two and Tier Three supplier, deriving a significant portion of revenues from subcontracts with prime contractors. Boeing contributed 13% and RTX Corporation (formerly Raytheon Technologies) 18% of 2025 net revenues; the top 10 customers combined represented 61%. Raw materials including aluminum, titanium, steel, and carbon fibers are generally available from multiple suppliers, though the 10-K notes that certain components are purchased from single-source suppliers — occasionally at customer direction — creating potential disruption exposure.
Show full overview
Ducommun's defense revenue dependence subjects the company to federal appropriations risk. The U.S. Government operated under continuing resolutions in late 2025 before legislation signed February 3, 2026 secured full-year FY26 funding, and the 10-K notes a future shutdown could cause payment delays and impair contract execution. Separately, in May 2026, Ducommun disclosed via Form 8-K that prior-period financial statements required restatement due to an error in stock-based compensation expense timing for retirement-eligible employees — an error described as non-cash that did not affect revenues, gross margin, or operating cash flows.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From Ducommun Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Ducommun Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Ducommun (NYSE:DCO) Sets New 12-Month High - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Ducommun (DCO) Q2 Earnings: What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Ducommun (NYSE:DCO) Surprises With Strong Q2 CY2026 - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Ducommun (DCO) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Ducommun (DCO) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomeraerospace and defense96%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest end-use markets are the aerospace and defense markets, and our revenues from these markets represented 96% of our total net revenues in 2025'
- HIGHCustomermilitary and space58%10-K Item 1: 'Revenues from the military and space end-use market in 2025 represented 58% of our total net revenues during 2025'
- LOWCustomerRTX Corporation18%10-K Item 1: 'Boeing generating 13% and RTX generating 18% of our 2025 net revenues'
- LOWCustomerBoeing13%10-K Item 1: 'Boeing generating 13% and RTX generating 18% of our 2025 net revenues'
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers61%10-K Item 1: 'Revenues from our top 10 customers, including Boeing and RTX, were 61% of total net revenues during 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-01Item 4.02HIGHOn May 1, 2026, management concluded prior-period financial statements must be restated due to an error in stock-based compensation expense timing for retirement-eligible employees (changes to award agreements made April 2024). Error was non-cash; did not affect net revenues, gross margin, or operating cash flows.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-04Item 5.02LOWOn May 4, 2026, the Board appointed Mark A. Caylor as Class II Director effective immediately, to serve until the 2029 annual stockholder meeting; also appointed to the Audit Committee. Routine non-employee director compensation structure disclosed. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $168.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $156.30. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $188.21 (+12.0% upside). Prior stop was $156.30. Stop-loss: $156.30.
Concentration risk — Customer: aerospace and defense (96.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: military and space (58.0%); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
Ducommun Incorporated trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 31.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover DCO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $216.
What does Ducommun Incorporated do?Ducommun manufactures aerospace and defense electronics and structural components through Electronic Systems and...
Ducommun manufactures aerospace and defense electronics and structural components through Electronic Systems and Structural Systems segments, with A&D end-markets representing 96% of 2025 net revenues. Boeing (13%) and RTX (18%) were the largest customers; the top 10 customers combined represented 61% of 2025 net revenues. Backlog was $1,202.9 million at December 31, 2025.