Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc (DAWN) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.50: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
Day One Biopharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage oncology company with one approved product, OJEMDA (tovorafenib), an oral RAF kinase inhibitor approved by the FDA in April 2024 for relapsed or refractory pediatric low-grade glioma. The company generated approximately $212.6... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.50: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc
About Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc
OJEMDA (tovorafenib), Day One Biopharmaceuticals' first approved product, received FDA accelerated approval on April 23, 2024, for relapsed or refractory pediatric low-grade glioma, generating cumulative product sales of approximately $212.6 million through December 31, 2025 from U.S. commercialization. Ipsen holds exclusive ex-U.S. rights under a July 2024 license agreement that included a $70.8 million upfront payment and eligibility for up to $375 million in additional milestone payments.
Day One generates U.S. revenue from OJEMDA sales through oncology prescribers treating BRAF-altered pediatric LGG, with reimbursement subject to commercial and government payer coverage decisions. The ex-U.S. model relies on Ipsen commercializing tovorafenib globally in exchange for tiered double-digit royalties on annual net sales. In June 2024, Day One in-licensed DAY301 (a PTK7-targeting ADC) from MabCare Therapeutics; in January 2026, Day One merged with Mersana Therapeutics at $25.00 per Target Share plus up to $30.25 in contingent value rights per share, acquiring Emi-Le—a B7-H4-targeting ADC in Phase 1 dose escalation for adenoid cystic carcinoma and other solid tumors. All manufacturing relies on third-party contract manufacturers, which the 10-K identifies as a potential source of production disruption and supply risk. Day One held $441.1 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments as of December 31, 2025.
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OJEMDA holds only accelerated approval, contingent on conversion to full approval via the Phase 3 FIREFLY-2 confirmatory trial—a randomized study enrolling approximately 400 patients under age 25 with first-line BRAF-altered pLGG. The first patient was dosed in March 2023, and the company expects enrollment to complete in the first half of 2026. If FIREFLY-2 fails its primary endpoint, FDA could withdraw the accelerated approval, threatening substantially all current revenue. In April 2026, Day One disclosed via Form 8-K that Servier Pharmaceuticals LLC completed a cash tender offer for all outstanding DAWN shares at $21.50 per share, with the merger effective April 23, 2026.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-13Recent Developments — Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc
Material events (past 30 days)
- Apr 23, 2026 HIGH Item 5.01: Change of control completed: Servier Pharmaceuticals' tender offer for all DAWN shares at $21.50/share expired April 22, 2026 and the merger closed. Day One becomes an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Servier S.A.S. No successor management named.
Generated 2026-05-23T23:56:17Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductOJEMDA10-K Item 1A: 'Our near-term revenues are highly dependent on the successful commercialization of OJEMDA ... OJEMDA is our only drug that has been approved for sale'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-23Item 5.01HIGHChange of control: Servier Pharmaceuticals LLC (via Purchaser Servier Detroit Inc.) completed cash tender offer for all outstanding DAWN shares at $21.50/share. Offer expired April 22, 2026; merger effective April 23, 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-23Item 2.01HIGHAcquisition of Day One Biopharmaceuticals completed by Servier Pharmaceuticals LLC. All outstanding shares acquired at $21.50 net per share in cash via tender offer commenced March 26, 2026, expiring April 22, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.50: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $21.47. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $24.76 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $21.47. Stop-loss: $21.47.
Concentration risk — Product: OJEMDA; Target reached (-13.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).
Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -504.1). TrendMatrix value score: 2.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover DAWN with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $22.
What does Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc do?Day One Biopharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage oncology company with one approved product, OJEMDA (tovorafenib), an...
Day One Biopharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage oncology company with one approved product, OJEMDA (tovorafenib), an oral RAF kinase inhibitor approved by the FDA in April 2024 for relapsed or refractory pediatric low-grade glioma. The company generated approximately $212.6 million in cumulative OJEMDA product revenue through December 31, 2025, with Ipsen holding exclusive ex-U.S. commercialization rights.