Despite strong revenue growth of 26% year-over-year and three recent earnings beats, shares have moved above the near-term resistance ceiling with negative implied upside, an RSI at 91 signaling overbought conditions, free cash flow that is negative relative to net income, and 54% of revenue concentrated in federal authorities — the risk/reward geometry is clearly unfavorable at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Shares Above Technical Ceiling→Stable
- Quality Below Minimum Threshold↑Improving
- Strong Growth Negative Cash Conversion→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.08: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality.
CoreCivic, the nation's largest owner of partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities, operates 44 correctional and detention facilities with approximately 68,000 design-capacity beds and 20 reentry centers with approximately 4,000 beds through its... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.08: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About CoreCivic, Inc.
About CoreCivic, Inc.
CoreCivic, Inc. generated federal payments representing 54% of total revenue in 2025 and owned or controlled 44 correctional and detention facilities with approximately 68,000 design-capacity beds at December 31, 2025. The company's CoreCivic Safety segment contributed 91.7% of segment net operating income that year; CoreCivic Community added 5.1% and CoreCivic Properties added 3.2%. Average compensated occupancy across all operated facilities reached 77% in 2025, up from 75% in 2024, and 86% excluding idled facilities.
CoreCivic earns revenue primarily from per-diem payments under facility management contracts with federal agencies — principally ICE, the USMS, and BOP — as well as state and local governments. Most contracts run one to five years with renewal options; the contract renewal rate for owned or controlled facilities was approximately 97% over the five years ended December 31, 2025. Under the per-diem structure, a decrease in occupancy directly reduces revenue because a substantial portion of the cost structure is fixed. Thirty-five facility contracts with maturity dates on or before December 31, 2026 — 22 of which carry renewal options — generated aggregate 2025 revenue of $688.1 million, equal to 31% of total revenue. Competition comes from government-run facilities and other private operators; the company competes primarily on bed availability, cost, ACA accreditation scores (averaging 99.6% across the CoreCivic Safety portfolio in 2025), and operational track record.
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The federal government's role as CoreCivic's dominant customer is both the foundation of the business model and its central policy risk. On January 20, 2025, President Trump reversed the Biden executive order that had directed the DOJ to stop renewing private-detention contracts with the BOP and USMS — a reversal that expanded CoreCivic's contracting opportunities. However, a future administration could issue a similar restriction, and California Assembly Bill 1633, if enacted, would impose a 50% annual tax on gross receipts of private detention operators beginning January 1, 2027, directly threatening revenue from the company's California ICE facilities.
See also: Industrials · Security & Protection Services
From CoreCivic, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — CoreCivic, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS 'ICE Private Prison Contracts Set Up Tough Environmental Battle' - Bloomberg Law — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Where Trump’s Portfolio Meets His Power: Nvidia, Palantir, Dell and More — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS 10 Industrials Stocks Whale Activity In Today’s Session — benzinga Oct 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS CoreCivic Appoints Lucibeth Mayberry as President and CEO, Succeeding Patrick Swindle — benzinga Sep 25, 2026 positive
- NEWS Benchmark Maintains Buy on CoreCivic, Raises Price Target to $45 — benzinga Aug 7, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerfederal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities54%10-K Item 1: 'Payments by federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities represented 54%...of our total revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.08: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $28.90. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $36.37 (+17.0% upside). Prior stop was $28.90. Stop-loss: $28.90.
Concentration risk — Customer: federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities (54.0%); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).
CoreCivic, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.9 (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover CXW with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $42.
What does CoreCivic, Inc. do?CoreCivic, the nation's largest owner of partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities,...
CoreCivic, the nation's largest owner of partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities, operates 44 correctional and detention facilities with approximately 68,000 design-capacity beds and 20 reentry centers with approximately 4,000 beds through its Safety and Community segments. Federal agencies — primarily ICE, the USMS, and BOP — account for 54% of total revenue, earned on a per-diem basis; average compensated occupancy across all operated facilities reached 77% in 2025.