Value
6.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 57.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
CWST · Why this verdict
Why Casella Waste Systems (CWST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.2 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.7 |
| Op margin | 1.1 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,798,999 (0.033% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.46
- ▸Above max pain $50
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.12
Upside
+15.2%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Catalyst at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.1, and Value at 6.0; the weakest are Quality at 3.8, Insider at 3.9, and Momentum at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.