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CSWCSW Industrials, Inc.Sell6.1·$291.12
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

CSW Industrials' 34% revenue growth puts it among the leaders in its peer group, but a mixed earnings delivery record with 2 beats and 2 misses over the last four quarters, free cash flow converting at only 26% of net income, and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.44 with just 3.6% upside to target leave the setup unattractive for new entry at current prices despite the strong top-line momentum.

Thesis pillars

  • Inconsistent Earnings Delivery↑Improving
  • Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
  • Weak Free Cash Conversion→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed May 26, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. At $291.12, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

CSW Industrials manufactures niche products across three segments: Contractor Solutions (HVAC/R, plumbing, electrical), Specialized Reliability Solutions (specialty lubricants and sealants for mining, rail, and energy), and Engineered Building Solutions (fire/smoke protection,... Read more

$291.12+5.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#11 of 56 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.53%
IncomeYield0.41%(5y avg 0.37%)Payout15.21%sustainable
Stop $272.52Analyst target $306.12(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst consensus$351.86+20.9%7 analysts
$306.12Analyst target
$291.12price
$351.86mean
$400

Sell if holding. At $291.12, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About CSW Industrials, Inc.

About CSW Industrials, Inc.

Three segments — Contractor Solutions, Specialized Reliability Solutions, and Engineered Building Solutions — position CSW Industrials across HVAC/R installation products, specialty industrial lubricants, and code-driven architectural fire/smoke protection. Manufacturing is concentrated in the United States, Vietnam, and Canada, with distribution in over 100 countries. The company invested nearly $1.2 billion in acquisitions across fiscal years 2024 through 2026, including MARS Parts ($658.1 million, November 2025) and Aspen Manufacturing ($327.6 million, May 2025).

CSW sells primarily through wholesale and full-service distribution networks. Contractor Solutions products — covering condensate management, evaporator coils, motors and capacitors, grilles, and maintenance chemicals under brands including RectorSeal, TRUaire, and MARS — serve HVAC/R contractors and plumbing wholesalers, with revenues that peak seasonally in spring and summer. Specialized Reliability Solutions' premium lubricants, anti-seize compounds, and desiccant breathers under brands such as Whitmore's Kopr-Kote and Jet-Lube command pricing above commodity alternatives, competing against Exxon-Mobil, Fuchs, Kluber, and Shell, with a long product sales cycle driven by verified performance proof. Engineered Building Solutions provides fire and smoke curtains, expansion joints, and perimeter protection under brands including Smoke Guard and Metacaulk to architects, general contractors, and building product distributors; in fiscal Q4 2026, the company committed to selling the Greco US business and exiting Greco Canada, recording a $15.6 million non-cash impairment.

Show full overview

A material supply chain exposure the 10-K discloses is CSW's manufacturing presence in Vietnam and use of third-party manufacturers in China, both subject to country-specific reciprocal tariffs imposed since February 2025. The company responded by negotiating supplier cost reductions, transitioning certain sourcing, and raising prices across all three segments. In February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA-based tariffs, potentially allowing recovery of amounts previously paid; however, the 10-K notes that tariff refund timing and administration remain uncertain and may add operational complexity.

See also: Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

From CSW Industrials, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-30

Recent Developments — CSW Industrials, Inc.

Generated 2026-10-30T12:27:48Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 2026Date unconfirmed· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.2%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.9
P/E (Fwd)21.3
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA19.7
Profit Mgn10.3%
ROE10.9%
Rev Growth33.0%
Beta0.81
Dividend0.41%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV39%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $279.63Resistance $306.34

Price Targets

$273
$306
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (Date unconfirmed)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $291.12, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $272.52. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CSW stock price target?

Analyst target: $306.12 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $272.52. Stop-loss: $272.52.

What are the risks of investing in CSW?

Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is CSW overvalued or undervalued?

CSW Industrials, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.9 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CSW?

11 analysts cover CSW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $352.

What does CSW Industrials, Inc. do?CSW Industrials manufactures niche products across three segments: Contractor Solutions (HVAC/R, plumbing, electrical),...

CSW Industrials manufactures niche products across three segments: Contractor Solutions (HVAC/R, plumbing, electrical), Specialized Reliability Solutions (specialty lubricants and sealants for mining, rail, and energy), and Engineered Building Solutions (fire/smoke protection, architectural components). Products are sold through wholesale distribution networks in over 100 countries; no single customer exceeded 10% of fiscal 2026 net revenues. The company invested nearly $1.2 billion in acquisitions across fiscal years 2024-2026.

Related stocks: AMSC (American Superconductor Corpora) · EPAC (Enerpac Tool Group Corp.) · GTES (Gates Industrial Corporation Lt) · XE (X-Energy, Inc.) · HLIO (Helios Technologies, Inc.)
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