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COPConocoPhillipsSell5.0·$116.98+1.40%
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ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $116.98: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Weak overall score: 5.0/10.

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's... Read more

$116.98+9.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#29 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.76%
IncomeYield2.91%(5y avg 2.47%)Payout54.92%sustainable
Stop $110.28Target $128.49(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$142.77+22.0%26 analysts
$128.49our TP
$116.98price
$142.77mean
$183

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $116.98: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.8%
Weak overall score: 5.0/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.6
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$140.5B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn12.3%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth-5.3%
Beta0.11
Dividend2.91%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.39bullish
IV35%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicnon-U.S. hydrocarbon production29%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 29 percent of our hydrocarbon production was derived from production outside the U.S. in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -5.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.2
Declining revenue: -5%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.9
Value Rank
3.3
Quality Rank
4.1
GatesMomentum 5.9>=5.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $112.64Resistance $126.00

Price Targets

$110
$128
A.Upside+9.8%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts32
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$143

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $116.98: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $110.28. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $128.49 (+9.8% upside). Prior stop was $110.28. Stop-loss: $110.28.

What are the risks of investing in COP?

Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth.

Is COP overvalued or undervalued?

ConocoPhillips trades at a P/E of 19.6 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COP?

32 analysts cover COP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $143.

What does ConocoPhillips do?ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas...

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects. It serves in the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and internationally. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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