Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.98
- ▸Attractively valued
COP · Why this verdict
Why ConocoPhillips (COP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.1 |
| Op margin | 8.8 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 72% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $81,643,752 (0.058% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 7.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 291.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:54d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.71
Upside
+9.8%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.71 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3, Value at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 0.6, Peer rank at 2.3, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.