Skip to main content
COHRCoherent Corp.Sell5.1·$386.00+6.17%
Open full analysis

Coherent Corp. (COHR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $386.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source or limited-source suppliers.

Coherent Corp. makes lasers, transceivers, and optical/optoelectronic components across three segments — Networking, Materials, and Lasers — for communications, industrial, and electronics markets globally, employing approximately 30,000 people. Two customers each contributed... Read more

$386.00+12.0% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 14 Scientific & Technical Instruments
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-0.26%
Stop $358.08Target $431.20(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$384.45-0.4%22 analysts
$431.20our TP
$386.00price
$384.45mean
$230
$465

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $386.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source or limited-source suppliers. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Coherent Corp.

About Coherent Corp.

Coherent Corp. operates multiple 6-inch GaAs VCSEL fabs and InP fabs in the U.S. and Europe, alongside an engineered-materials portfolio spanning ZnSe, GaAs, SiC, and thermoelectric compounds — a degree of vertical integration unusual among photonics suppliers. In fiscal 2025, the company employed approximately 30,000 people across production and R&D facilities in 14 countries, with manufacturing comprising 83% of headcount. Two customers each contributed more than 10% of total fiscal 2025 revenues.

Coherent generates hardware sales revenue across three reporting segments in fiscal 2025. The Networking segment — focused on transceivers, subsystems, and semiconductor devices for datacenter and telecom applications — has seen significant growth in AI and ML datacom demand, with the company's portfolio of 800G and 1.6T transceivers, co-packaged optics, and silicon photonics positioned for hyperscaler procurement cycles. The Materials segment supplies ZnSe optics, SiC substrates for electric vehicle power electronics and 5G base-station RF amplifiers, and thermoelectric components. The Lasers segment serves semiconductor capital equipment, display manufacturing, precision manufacturing, and life sciences customers. Products are sold directly and through representatives and distributors worldwide to OEM and end-user customers. R&D in fiscal 2025 concentrated on photonics design, GaAs pump laser portfolio development, and SiC epitaxial wafer improvement. The capital-intensive manufacturing cost structure is sensitive to volume, and certain raw materials — including rare-earth minerals and noble gases — are exposed to export controls China imposed in 2024 on yttrium and germanium.

Show full overview

Coherent's Lasers segment purchases certain key components — exotic materials, crystals, and optics — from sole-source or limited-source suppliers, with no quick alternative qualification path. The 10-K also discloses a January 2025 inquiry from the Bureau of Industry and Security regarding past product sales to Huawei; the company has stopped shipments to Huawei and is cooperating with BIS, with outcome and potential penalties undetermined as of the filing. China's 2024 export restrictions on yttrium and germanium may further weigh on input cost stability in the Materials segment, while the overall supply chain remains dependent on Asia-Pacific manufacturing at approximately 22,340 of the company's 30,000 employees.

See also: Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments

From Coherent Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 202659d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source or limited-source suppliers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)181.6
P/E (Fwd)47.1
Mkt Cap$75.3B
EV/EBITDA58.4
Profit Mgn7.1%
ROE4.7%
Rev Growth20.5%
Beta2.05
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV107%elevated
Max Pain$650+68.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'A small number of customers have consistently accounted for a significant portion of our revenues, with two customers each contributing more than 10% of total revenues in fiscal 2025.'
  • HIGHSuppliersole-source or limited-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'in the Lasers segment, we currently purchase several key components and materials...from sole-source or limited-source suppliers.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Chief Strategy Officer Giovanni Barbarossa notified Coherent Corp. on April 27, 2026 of his intention to transition from his CSO role effective immediately, moving to Special Advisor to the CEO. Plans to retire in September 2026, with final retirement date to be determined.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
7.1

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
2.5
Forward Pe
2.5
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 47.1xPEG: 0.16

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.7
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 59d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $335.48Resistance $440.00

Price Targets

$358
$431
A.Upside+11.7%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.1% upside)
! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (59d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COHR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $386.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source or limited-source suppliers. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $358.08. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COHR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $431.20 (+12.0% upside). Prior stop was $358.08. Stop-loss: $358.08.

What are the risks of investing in COHR?

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source or limited-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Is COHR overvalued or undervalued?

Coherent Corp. trades at a P/E of 181.6 (forward 47.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COHR?

29 analysts cover COHR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $384.

What does Coherent Corp. do?Coherent Corp. makes lasers, transceivers, and optical/optoelectronic components across three segments — Networking,...

Coherent Corp. makes lasers, transceivers, and optical/optoelectronic components across three segments — Networking, Materials, and Lasers — for communications, industrial, and electronics markets globally, employing approximately 30,000 people. Two customers each contributed more than 10% of fiscal 2025 revenue. Vertical integration from specialty materials through finished modules gives the company a differentiated position relative to pure-assembly optical peers.

Related stocks: GRMN (Garmin Ltd.) · KEYS (Keysight Technologies Inc.) · CGNX (Cognex Corporation) · TRMB (Trimble Inc.) · FTV (Fortive Corporation)
Home Stocks COHR

Latest news

Latest News

MSN47d ago
Yahoo Finance47d ago
Qz.com62d ago
GuruFocus68d ago
FXEmpire68d ago
Barron's40d ago
StockStory40d agoEarnings
Seeking Alpha40d agoEarnings
The Globe and Mail40d agoAnalyst
Quiver Quantitative40d agoEarnings
Quiver Quantitative48d ago
Yahoo Finance49d ago
Zacks Investment Research69d ago
FinancialContent69d agoProduct
Quiver Quantitative69d ago
Yahoo Finance41d agoEarnings
Investing.com41d agoAnalyst
Seeking Alpha41d agoAnalyst
StocksToTrade13d ago
CNBC13d ago
Loading more...