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GRMNGarmin Ltd.Sell5.8·$238.10-0.20%
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Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $238.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan manufacturing.

Garmin designs, manufactures, and sells GPS-enabled products across fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM markets globally; delivered more than 20 million products in fiscal 2025 and over 300 million since inception. Revenue comes from hardware device sales and... Read more

$238.100.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#2 of 14 Scientific & Technical Instruments
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.76%
IncomeYield1.76%(5y avg 2.08%)Payout40.18%sustainable
Stop $226.52Target $238.06(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$262.43+10.2%7 analysts
$238.06our TP
$238.10price
$262.43mean
$220
$325

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $238.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan manufacturing. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan manufacturing
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.6
P/E (Fwd)23.1
Mkt Cap$45.9B
EV/EBITDA20.0
Profit Mgn23.3%
ROE19.9%
Rev Growth14.2%
Beta0.92
Dividend1.76%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV54%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTaiwan manufacturing
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our principal manufacturing facilities for consumer products are located in Taiwan'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $224.54Resistance $242.92

Price Targets

$227
$238
A.Upside-0.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRMN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $238.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan manufacturing. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $226.52. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GRMN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $238.06 (0.0% upside). Prior stop was $226.52. Stop-loss: $226.52.

What are the risks of investing in GRMN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan manufacturing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is GRMN overvalued or undervalued?

Garmin Ltd. trades at a P/E of 26.6 (forward 23.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GRMN?

16 analysts cover GRMN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $262.

What does Garmin Ltd. do?Garmin designs, manufactures, and sells GPS-enabled products across fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM...

Garmin designs, manufactures, and sells GPS-enabled products across fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM markets globally; delivered more than 20 million products in fiscal 2025 and over 300 million since inception. Revenue comes from hardware device sales and subscriptions distributed through a worldwide network of dealers, retailers, and OEMs; manufacturing facilities are in Taiwan, the U.S., Netherlands, U.K., Poland, and China.

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