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Cognex Corporation (CGNX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $55.97, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (non-U.S.) customers (67.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party contractor in Indonesia.

Cognex designs machine vision systems that automate inspection, identification and measurement of discrete items on assembly lines and distribution centers. It serves logistics, packaging, consumer electronics and automotive markets globally; those four segments represented ~85%... Read more

$55.97+5.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#13 of 14 Scientific & Technical Instruments
Stop $52.25Target $58.95(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$65.50+17.0%20 analysts
$58.95our TP
$55.97price
$65.50mean
$50
$80

Sell if holding. At $55.97, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (non-U.S.) customers (67.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party contractor in Indonesia. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international (non-U.S.) customers (67.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party contractor in Indonesia
Thin upside margin: 5.4%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)81.6
P/E (Fwd)36.1
Mkt Cap$9.3B
EV/EBITDA46.2
Profit Mgn11.5%
ROE7.6%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta1.47
Dividend0.59%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV91%elevated
Max Pain$25-55.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational (non-U.S.) customers67%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, approximately 67% of our revenue was derived from customers located outside of the United States.'
  • HIGHSupplierthird-party contractor in Indonesia
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our products is manufactured by a third-party contractor located in Indonesia.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 4.01HIGH
    Auditor change: Grant Thornton LLP dismissed eff. Feb 13, 2026 after completing FY2025 audit; KPMG LLP selected as auditor for FY2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed Dr. Sami Atiya and Mr. Chris Donato as directors eff. March 2, 2026. Non-executive board appointments; no officer departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.8
Quality Rank
3.2
Growth Rank
5.7

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
0.9
Forward Pe
3.0
Ps
3.9
Peg Ratio
4.5
Analyst Target
6.0
Forward P/E: 36.1xPEG: 2.01

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.7
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $48.28Resistance $57.30

Price Targets

$52
$59
A.Upside+5.3%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CGNX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $55.97, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (non-U.S.) customers (67.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party contractor in Indonesia. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $52.25. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the CGNX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.95 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $52.25. Stop-loss: $52.25.

What are the risks of investing in CGNX?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international (non-U.S.) customers (67.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party contractor in Indonesia; Thin upside margin: 5.4%.

Is CGNX overvalued or undervalued?

Cognex Corporation trades at a P/E of 81.6 (forward 36.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CGNX?

29 analysts cover CGNX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $66.

What does Cognex Corporation do?Cognex designs machine vision systems that automate inspection, identification and measurement of discrete items on...

Cognex designs machine vision systems that automate inspection, identification and measurement of discrete items on assembly lines and distribution centers. It serves logistics, packaging, consumer electronics and automotive markets globally; those four segments represented ~85% of 2025 revenue.

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