Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $470.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S. with more than 1,500 stores plus 86 Space NK stores in the UK/Ireland, joint ventures in Mexico, and a franchise in the Middle East. Revenue comes from in-store and e-commerce sales of ~30,000 products from ~600... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $470.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-10Recent Developments — Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com negative
- NEWS Ulta Beauty Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Ulta Beauty, DC Studios and Warner Bros. Pictures Launch Exclusive Supergirl Partnership, Bridging Beauty & Culture - Bu — Business Wire positive
- NEWS Ghe LLC Purchases Shares of 5,361 Ulta Beauty Inc. $ULTA - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-06-10T21:11:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliertop ten brand partners51%10-K Item 1A: 'merchandise supplied by our top ten brand partners accounted for approximately 51% and 54% of our net sales, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $470.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $444.94. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $563.40 (+19.7% upside). Prior stop was $444.94. Stop-loss: $444.94.
Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.9 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
34 analysts cover ULTA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $626.
What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S. with more than 1,500 stores plus 86 Space NK stores in...
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S. with more than 1,500 stores plus 86 Space NK stores in the UK/Ireland, joint ventures in Mexico, and a franchise in the Middle East. Revenue comes from in-store and e-commerce sales of ~30,000 products from ~600 brands plus salon services; the Ulta Beauty Rewards loyalty program has 46 million members with ~95% of sales from members in fiscal 2025.