Ulta Beauty trades at a forward P/E of 14.8x with 47% ROE and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but is in a confirmed falling-knife technical pattern below all moving averages with a death cross in place, and its supplier concentration across the top ten brand partners creates a structural vulnerability.
Thesis pillars
- Supplier Concentration Top Ten Brands↑Improving
- Analyst Upside With Earnings Beat Base→Stable
- High Roe Quality In Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 26, 2026
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $619.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%).
Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service salons, selling approximately 30,000 products from roughly 600 brands across cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare. The company earns revenue from direct... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $619.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS UBER Expands Delivery Options Via ULTA Deal: A Growth Catalyst? - qz.com — qz.com positive
- NEWS BofA reiterates Ulta Beauty stock rating on competitive response - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS Sisters arrested for allegedly stealing $75K in cosmetics from Ulta Beauty stores - AZ Family — AZ Family negative
- NEWS 2 women arrested for allegedly stealing $75K in cosmetics from Ulta Beauty stores - FOX Carolina News — FOX Carolina News negative
- NEWS Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliertop ten brand partners51%10-K Item 1A: 'merchandise supplied by our top ten brand partners accounted for approximately 51% and 54% of our net sales, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $619.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $586.96. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $572.26 reached (−7.6% from $619.24); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $586.96. Stop-loss: $586.96.
Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten brand partners (51.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.6 (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
35 analysts cover ULTA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $636.
What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service...
Ulta Beauty, the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operates more than 1,500 stores with full-service salons, selling approximately 30,000 products from roughly 600 brands across cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare. The company earns revenue from direct retail sales and salon services, with approximately 95% of Ulta U.S. sales generated by the Ulta Beauty Rewards® loyalty program's 46 million-plus members. International operations include 84 Space NK stores in the U.K. and Ireland.