Value
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 37.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.05
CASY · Why this verdict
Why Caseys General Stores (CASY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.9 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 72% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.6 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 21)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $63,021 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.4 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 6.5 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
- ▸Above max pain $600
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
- ▸Dividend: 30.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.06
Upside
-0.4%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Technical at 7.8 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Catalyst at 7.2, and Growth at 6.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.5, Value at 3.9, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.06 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.