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CARRCarrier Global CorporationSell4.1·$71.24+5.78%
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Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.24: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 20.53; Below-average business quality.

Carrier Global is a climate and energy solutions manufacturer with $21.7B in 2025 net sales, operating through four segments (Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Transportation) under brands including Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, and Carrier Transicold. Products span residential and... Read more

$71.24-2.0% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#19 of 19 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield1.52%
IncomeYield1.43%(5y avg 1.28%)Payout61.00%
Stop $66.25Target $69.84(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$76.31+7.1%22 analysts
$69.84our TP
$71.24price
$76.31mean
$60
$90

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.24: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 20.53; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Carrier Global Corporation

About Carrier Global Corporation

Carrier Global Corporation generated $21.7 billion in net sales in fiscal 2025, spread across four climate segments — Climate Solutions Americas, Climate Solutions Europe, Climate Solutions Asia Pacific/Middle East/Africa, and Climate Solutions Transportation — with 52% of revenue from international operations, 28% of sales from aftermarket parts and service, and approximately 47,000 employees across more than 52 countries.

Revenue splits between new equipment (72%) and aftermarket parts and service (28%) across residential, commercial, data center, and cold chain end markets. Products include heat pumps, air conditioners, transport refrigeration units, and building energy management systems sold through contractors, distributors, wholesalers, dealers, and joint ventures — including the Carrier Enterprise joint ventures with Watsco, Inc. and the AHI-Carrier FZC joint venture in the UAE. Raw material inputs — copper, aluminum, steel, and semiconductors for electronic controls — are sourced through a central strategic sourcing group that consolidates purchases across segments. The 2024 acquisition of the Viessmann climate solutions business expanded European residential heat pump capacity; the pending sale of the Riello heating products business for approximately $430 million (expected to close first half of 2026) sharpens the portfolio focus. The Lynx digital cold chain monitoring platform, developed with Amazon Web Services, and the Abound cloud-based building management system extend revenue into the product lifecycle via monitoring and service subscriptions.

Show full overview

Carrier holds direct ownership interests in approximately 58 joint ventures, 52% relating to Climate Solutions Americas and 38% to Climate Solutions Asia Pacific/Middle East/Africa. These partnerships limit Carrier's ability to apply internal controls to minority-held positions, and if a joint venture partner faces a labor strike, diminished liquidity, or weak demand, results could be adversely affected. Separately, tariff exposure from manufacturing operations in Mexico, Brazil, China, and India — geographies the 10-K specifically names — may weigh on margins if trade disputes escalate, while divergent international refrigerant regulations across the EU, U.S., and other jurisdictions could require region-specific product variants and increased compliance costs.

See also: Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

From Carrier Global Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10

Recent Developments — Carrier Global Corporation

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (52.0%)
Target reached (-3.6% upside)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)44.9
P/E (Fwd)21.0
Mkt Cap$55.9B
EV/EBITDA21.5
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE9.9%
Rev Growth2.4%
Beta1.34
Dividend1.43%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C20.53bearish
IV50%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational operations52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 52% of our net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025, are derived from international operations, including U.S. export sales.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.1

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
3.7
Value Rank
3.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.0
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.8

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.0
Roa
2.1
Operating Margin
2.6
Net Margin
3.0
Roe
3.3
Moat
3.8
Current Ratio
4.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Fcf Quality
5.0
Earnings quality warning: 65% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $61.12Resistance $71.27

Price Targets

$66
$70
A.Upside-2.0%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.3), Material insider selling (21 sells, 0.02% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CARR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.24: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 20.53; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $66.25. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CARR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.84 (-2.0% upside). Prior stop was $66.25. Stop-loss: $66.25.

What are the risks of investing in CARR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (52.0%); Target reached (-3.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is CARR overvalued or undervalued?

Carrier Global Corporation trades at a P/E of 44.9 (forward 21.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CARR?

33 analysts cover CARR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $76.

What does Carrier Global Corporation do?Carrier Global is a climate and energy solutions manufacturer with $21.7B in 2025 net sales, operating through four...

Carrier Global is a climate and energy solutions manufacturer with $21.7B in 2025 net sales, operating through four segments (Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Transportation) under brands including Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, and Carrier Transicold. Products span residential and commercial HVAC, heat pumps, and cold chain solutions sold to contractors, distributors, and end-users globally. International operations represented approximately 52% of 2025 net sales.

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