Cal-Maine sits at a cyclical earnings peak with consensus expecting a roughly 75% decline in profits ahead and the stock trading above its near-term resistance target — the reward-to-risk geometry is deeply unfavorable and a confirmed technical downtrend reinforces the case for caution.
Thesis pillars
- Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Cyclical Earnings Decline Ahead→Stable
- Price Above Resistance Negative Ratio→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jul 22, 2026
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.18: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.11; Below-average business quality.
Cal-Maine Foods, based in Ridgeland, Mississippi and founded in 1957, is the largest U.S. egg company, producing and selling conventional and specialty shell eggs, plus prepared foods and egg products. Shell eggs were 84.6% to 94.3% of net sales over the last three fiscal years,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.18: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.11; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
About Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
Cal-Maine Foods describes itself as the largest egg company in the United States, and its top three customers accounted for an aggregate of 43.1% of net sales in fiscal 2026, with Walmart Inc., including Sam's Club, at 30.0%. Fresh shell eggs accounted for 84.6% to 94.3% of net sales across the last three fiscal years. The Ridgeland, Mississippi company, founded in 1957, reports three segments, Conventional Shell Eggs, Specialty Shell Eggs and Prepared Foods, and produced 92.1% of the dozens it sold in fiscal 2026.
Cal-Maine sells conventional eggs under brands including Sunups and Sunny Meadow, and specialty eggs such as cage-free, nutritionally enhanced, organic, pasture-raised and free-range, to retail and foodservice customers. Pricing for almost all conventional shell eggs follows market-based or hybrid frameworks that reference quoted wholesale prices from Urner Barry or the USDA, split almost evenly, while the majority of specialty eggs are priced on cost-of-production frameworks, so specialty prices typically fluctuate less. Feed is a primary cost: fiscal 2026 requirements were 2.2 million tons of finished feed, mostly produced at the company's own mills, with corn the main ingredient and soybean meal secondary, and storage capacity for 242 thousand tons. Acquisitions broaden the platform, including the Creighton Brothers assets purchased effective March 2, 2026 for approximately $129.3 million and Clean Egg assets for approximately $23.7 million, and the company intends to raise prepared foods capacity by more than 30 percent from mid-2027 through 2028.
Show full overview
Customer concentration and avian influenza form the two sharpest exposures. Walmart's share has declined from 34.0% in fiscal 2024 to 33.6% in fiscal 2025 and 30.0% in fiscal 2026, yet the 10-K says customers are generally free to acquire eggs from other sources, so reduced purchases or pricing pressure from a large customer could have a material adverse effect. Highly pathogenic avian influenza also shapes supply and prices: the company had outbreaks in Kansas and Texas facilities in fiscal 2024 and, in March 2026, one at a Maryland pullet facility that led to depopulation of approximately 352,000 pullets.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
From Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cal-Maine (NASDAQ:CALM) Misses Q2 CY2026 Sales Expectations - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (CALM) Cal-Maine Foods Posts Fiscal Q4 Loss $0.76 a Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.08 EPS - marketscreener. — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (CALM) Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Reports Q4 Revenue $552.6M, vs. FactSet Est of $563.8M - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS Tesla Stock Is in the Calm Before the Storm - Barron's — Barron's neutral
- NEWS US futures keep the calm for now but the coast isn't clear yet - investingLive — investingLive neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart largest customer30%10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest customer, Walmart Inc. ... accounted for 30.0%, 33.6% and 34.0% of net sales dollars for fiscal 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively'
- MEDIUMCustomertop three customers43%10-K Item 1A: 'Our top three customers accounted for an aggregate of 43.1%, 49.2% and 49.0% of our net sales for fiscal 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
- HIGHProductfresh shell eggs10-K Item 1A: 'The production and sale of fresh shell eggs, which accounted for 84.6% to 94.3% of our net sales in our last three fiscal years'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
6 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -41.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $61.18: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.11; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $58.33. Score 3.3/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $58.08 reached (−5.1% from $61.18); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $58.33. Stop-loss: $58.33.
Concentration risk — Product: fresh shell eggs; Target reached (-5.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.7 (forward 60.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover CALM with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $68.
What does Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. do?Cal-Maine Foods, based in Ridgeland, Mississippi and founded in 1957, is the largest U.S. egg company, producing and...
Cal-Maine Foods, based in Ridgeland, Mississippi and founded in 1957, is the largest U.S. egg company, producing and selling conventional and specialty shell eggs, plus prepared foods and egg products. Shell eggs were 84.6% to 94.3% of net sales over the last three fiscal years, and Walmart (including Sam's Club) was 30.0% of fiscal 2026 net sales. It produced 92.1% of the dozens it sold and made most of its own feed.