Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.0x
CALM · Why this verdict
Why Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.1 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.8 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 3.8 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 47% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.6 |
| days to cover | 2.2 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 4.3 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $45
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 635.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:43d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.39
Upside
-2.0%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.0; weakest: Growth at 0.0. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Sentiment at 6.2, and Quality at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Momentum at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.39 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.