Skip to main content
AGROAdecoagro S.A.Sell5.6·$11.03-5.36%
Open full analysis

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.03: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural... Read more

$11.03+6.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#3 of 7 Farm Products
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-4.29%
IncomeYield2.54%Payout1943.61%at-risk
Stop $10.63Target $11.78(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$13.54+22.8%7 analysts
$11.78our TP
$11.03price
$13.54mean
$7
$16

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.03: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Adecoagro S.A.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 11, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)582.5
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA12.8
Profit Mgn0.9%
ROE1.1%
Rev Growth22.5%
Beta-0.10
Dividend2.54%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV187%elevated
Max Pain$25+126.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Operating Margin
0.1
Gross Margin
0.2
Roe
0.4
Net Margin
0.5
Roa
0.7
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
6.2
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -526% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9Quality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Macd
2.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 28)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
7.1
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.96Resistance $13.79

Price Targets

$11
$12
A.Upside+6.8%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGRO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.03: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.63. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGRO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.78 (+6.8% upside). Prior stop was $10.63. Stop-loss: $10.63.

What are the risks of investing in AGRO?

Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0).

Is AGRO overvalued or undervalued?

Adecoagro S.A. trades at a P/E of 582.5 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGRO?

13 analysts cover AGRO with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Adecoagro S.A. do?Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The...

Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products. It also generates electricity through burning biogas extracted from effluents produced by its dairy cattle; and provides grain warehousing and conditioning, and handling and drying services. In addition, the company cultivates andharvests sugarcane to produce ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity; and sells carbon credits. Further, it engages in land transformation activities, such as the acquisition of farmlands or businesses with underdeveloped or underutilized agricultural land; and the implementation of production technology and agricultural practices. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V.

Related stocks: DOLE (Dole plc) · FDP (Del Monte Corporation) · CALM (Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.) · TAL (TAL Education Group) · EDU (New Oriental Education & Techno)
Home Stocks AGRO

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga8h agoCONCERNAnalyst
Benzinga35d ago
Benzinga36d agoEarnings
Benzinga61d ago
Benzinga68d ago