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BWMNBowman Consulting Group Ltd.Sell5.6·$28.11-0.92%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

BWMN combines a strong earnings and cash-conversion track record with a confirmed technical downtrend and failed momentum gate, creating a split between fundamental strength and near-term price weakness.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Beat Cheap ValuationStable
  • Confirmed Downtrend Momentum FailureStable
  • Strong Cash Conversion QualityStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (BWMN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5.

Bowman Consulting Group is a professional services firm providing engineering, planning, program management, environmental consulting, geospatial imaging and surveying services to public and private infrastructure owners, operating from more than 135 U.S. locations and four... Read more

$28.11+49.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#19 of 32 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.97%
Stop $26.80Target $42.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 6.1:1
Analyst target$48.33+71.9%6 analysts
$42.05our TP
$28.11price
$48.33mean
$58

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)47.5
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$515M
EV/EBITDA16.1
Profit Mgn2.2%
ROE4.4%
Rev Growth12.0%
Beta1.34
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV78%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Chief Legal Officer, Secretary and EVP Robert Hickey announced his retirement effective December 31, 2026 and resigned his officer roles effective May 1, 2026, continuing as Senior Legal Advisor; not due to any disagreement with the company. Elizabeth Abdoo was appointed to succeed him.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.7
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.9
Growth Rank
3.8
Value Rank
5.6
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)INSIDER 0.17%=MODERATEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 6.1 ≥ 1.5NEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
25 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $27.63Resistance $33.35

Price Targets

$27
$42
A.Upside+49.6%
A.R:R6.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BWMN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $26.80. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BWMN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.05 (+49.6% upside). Prior stop was $26.80. Stop-loss: $26.80.

What are the risks of investing in BWMN?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is BWMN overvalued or undervalued?

Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. trades at a P/E of 47.5 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BWMN?

13 analysts cover BWMN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. do?Bowman Consulting Group is a professional services firm providing engineering, planning, program management,...

Bowman Consulting Group is a professional services firm providing engineering, planning, program management, environmental consulting, geospatial imaging and surveying services to public and private infrastructure owners, operating from more than 135 U.S. locations and four offices in Mexico. The company generated $490 million in gross contract revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, with approximately 30% from public-sector customers and 73% from repeat customers, supported by a workforce of over 2,300 employees and a backlog of roughly 10,000 active projects worth approximately $479 mi

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