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CDNLCardinal Infrastructure Group ISell5.6·$70.21+2.15%
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Cardinal Infrastructure Group I (CDNL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $70.21 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-1.4% away).

Cardinal Infrastructure Group provides turnkey site preparation services — wet utilities, grading, site clearing, paving — primarily for residential homebuilders in North Carolina's Raleigh, Charlotte, and Greensboro markets. Revenue is earned under fixed-price contracts with no... Read more

$70.21+1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#13 of 30 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-2.72%
Stop $65.31Target $71.30(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$61.50-12.4%2 analysts
$71.30our TP
$70.21price
$61.50mean
$60

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $70.21 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-1.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Cardinal Infrastructure Group I

About Cardinal Infrastructure Group I

Cardinal Infrastructure Group reported combined backlog of approximately $682 million across its three North Carolina markets at December 31, 2025 — $463 million in Raleigh, $140 million in Charlotte, and $79 million in Greensboro — with Charlotte growing from $18 million to roughly $94 million in revenue between 2023 and 2025, representing about 21% of total revenue for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025. Total revenue expanded at a 44% compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2025, supported by six acquisitions, and the company raised approximately $277.7 million in its December 2025 IPO at $21.00 per share.

Cardinal earns revenue under fixed-unit price and lump sum contracts for site preparation services — wet utility installation, grading, site clearing, erosion control, drilling and blasting, and paving — awarded primarily through direct negotiation with national and regional residential homebuilders rather than lowest-bidder competitive processes. Fixed-price structures require accurate cost estimation because margins depend on keeping actual costs below bid levels; fuel, concrete, steel, and lumber price increases have historically pressured margins. Cardinal performs nearly all work in-house through a fleet of owned construction equipment, maintaining control over project timelines and avoiding subcontractor dependence. In February 2026, the company completed the $245.5 million acquisition of A.L. Grading Contractors, LLC, a provider of infrastructure services in the greater Atlanta, Georgia area, funded through cash on hand and credit facility borrowings.

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Cardinal's geographic concentration in North Carolina — acknowledged in the 10-K as a risk that could cause a disproportionate impact versus more broadly diversified competitors — rests on the state's above-average population growth: North Carolina ranked fourth fastest-growing nationally from 2010 to 2024 per the 2024 census, with population projected to grow 6.3% from 2024 to 2030 per the NC Office of State Budget and Management. If population growth slows materially or housing starts decline, demand for site preparation services could compress before Cardinal has diversified into additional Southeastern states such as Georgia, Tennessee, or Florida.

See also: Industrials · Engineering & Construction

From Cardinal Infrastructure Group I's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-1.4% away)
Euphoria warning: extreme positivity (+1.00) + overbought RSI 77

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)50.9
P/E (Fwd)37.4
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn3.8%
ROE25.2%
Rev Growth104.8%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicNorth Carolina
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently conduct business primarily in the State of North Carolina and our business strategy is focused on the Southeastern United States.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-18Item 5.02LOW
    On March 12, 2026, Anthony L. Wood (President of ALGC, acquired February 18, 2026) appointed to Board of Directors; Benjamin A. Wood (VP of ALGC) appointed Chief Operating Officer. Both appointments tied to the February 2026 ALGC acquisition.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.2
Support Resistance
1.0
Gap
4.0
52w Position
9.3
GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $46.57Resistance $72.75

Price Targets

$65
$71
A.Upside+1.6%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-25.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for CDNL.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CDNL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $70.21 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-1.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $65.31. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CDNL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.30 (+1.5% upside). Prior stop was $65.31. Stop-loss: $65.31.

What are the risks of investing in CDNL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-1.4% away); Euphoria warning: extreme positivity (+1.00) + overbought RSI 77.

Is CDNL overvalued or undervalued?

Cardinal Infrastructure Group I trades at a P/E of 50.9 (forward 37.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CDNL?

9 analysts cover CDNL with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $62.

What does Cardinal Infrastructure Group I do?Cardinal Infrastructure Group provides turnkey site preparation services — wet utilities, grading, site clearing,...

Cardinal Infrastructure Group provides turnkey site preparation services — wet utilities, grading, site clearing, paving — primarily for residential homebuilders in North Carolina's Raleigh, Charlotte, and Greensboro markets. Revenue is earned under fixed-price contracts with no customer exceeding 10% of fiscal 2025 revenue; combined backlog was approximately $682 million at year-end 2025. The company went public in December 2025 at $21.00 per share, raising approximately $277.7 million.

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