Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
BWMN · Why this verdict
Why Bowman Consulting Group (BWMN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bowman Consulting shows strong cash conversion, growth and a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak, but the price is 12.7% above the analyst target, quality is below average and insiders are selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is 395% of net income, so cash generation is far ahead of reported profit. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin is only 0.7/10 in score, so a tiny net income base can inflate the conversion ratio. | ||
The company beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a 12.5% average surprise, and quarterly revenue rose from $122M to $146M. Avg surprise pct | EPS surprise stays positive while revenue growth holds above 7% YoY. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAcquisition-driven growth in engineering services can inflate revenue while organic growth and margins lag. | ||
At $42.83 the stock is 12.7% above the $37.41 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets toward the current price as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterForward P/E of 17.3x with strong growth may justify higher targets, so the gap could close from the target side. | ||
Insiders sold $2.6M of stock, equal to 0.368% of market cap, a notable sale alongside a recent officer change. Insider breakdown | Insider selling fades over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsiders at growing small caps often sell vested equity compensation, which carries little information about the business. | ||
Free cash flow is 395% of net income, so cash generation is far ahead of reported profit.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterNet margin is only 0.7/10 in score, so a tiny net income base can inflate the conversion ratio.
The company beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a 12.5% average surprise, and quarterly revenue rose from $122M to $146M.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive while revenue growth holds above 7% YoY.
CounterAcquisition-driven growth in engineering services can inflate revenue while organic growth and margins lag.
At $42.83 the stock is 12.7% above the $37.41 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets toward the current price as earnings grow.
CounterForward P/E of 17.3x with strong growth may justify higher targets, so the gap could close from the target side.
Insiders sold $2.6M of stock, equal to 0.368% of market cap, a notable sale alongside a recent officer change.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling fades over the next 12 months.
CounterInsiders at growing small caps often sell vested equity compensation, which carries little information about the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 395% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,615,493 (0.368% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 9.7 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.7 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (3)
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.37%=HEAVY
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.85
Upside
-12.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.48>1.3, MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:0.37%=HEAVY) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.85 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.7, Insider at 3.7, and Momentum at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.85 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from the current 395%.
- P2Earnings Beat Growth
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $48, more than 12% above the current price.
- P4Insider Selling Pressure
Trip ifNet insider selling falls below 0.1% of market cap from the current 0.368%.