Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
BWMN · Why this verdict
Why Bowman Consulting Group (BWMN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of its last four quarters with an average surprise near 40%, while trading at a cheap forward P/E of 12.1x and a PEG ratio of just 0.04. Bull case | The valuation multiple should re-rate higher and the beat streak should continue at the next earnings report on 2026-08-05. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock's confirmed technical downtrend suggests the market may already be pricing in a slowdown that hasn't shown up in trailing earnings yet. | ||
The stock has failed the engine's momentum gate, with a momentum score of 2.0 below the 4.5 threshold, and triggered a hard-block death cross, with RSI at a capitulation-risk level of 25. Warnings | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and the stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average within the next 12 months for the downtrend to be considered resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterDeeply oversold, capitulation-level RSI readings can mark a bottom rather than confirm further downside, especially alongside a strong earnings and cash-flow profile. | ||
The company converts cash exceptionally well, with free cash flow at 424% of net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, indicating solid underlying business quality despite the technical rout. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score and cash conversion should remain strong, at an F-Score of 6 or above, over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA high FCF-to-net-income ratio can reflect one-off working-capital swings, such as delayed capex or collections, rather than a durable structural advantage. | ||
Insiders sold roughly $893,000 of stock over the past 90 days, about 0.178% of market cap, a level the engine flags as notable insider selling amid the stock's downtrend. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should moderate and the insider signal should move away from bearish over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterInsiders often sell into weakness for tax or diversification reasons unrelated to their view of the business, especially at a level as small as 0.178% of market cap. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of its last four quarters with an average surprise near 40%, while trading at a cheap forward P/E of 12.1x and a PEG ratio of just 0.04.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The valuation multiple should re-rate higher and the beat streak should continue at the next earnings report on 2026-08-05.
CounterThe stock's confirmed technical downtrend suggests the market may already be pricing in a slowdown that hasn't shown up in trailing earnings yet.
The stock has failed the engine's momentum gate, with a momentum score of 2.0 below the 4.5 threshold, and triggered a hard-block death cross, with RSI at a capitulation-risk level of 25.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and the stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average within the next 12 months for the downtrend to be considered resolved.
CounterDeeply oversold, capitulation-level RSI readings can mark a bottom rather than confirm further downside, especially alongside a strong earnings and cash-flow profile.
The company converts cash exceptionally well, with free cash flow at 424% of net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, indicating solid underlying business quality despite the technical rout.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score and cash conversion should remain strong, at an F-Score of 6 or above, over the next several quarters.
CounterA high FCF-to-net-income ratio can reflect one-off working-capital swings, such as delayed capex or collections, rather than a durable structural advantage.
Insiders sold roughly $893,000 of stock over the past 90 days, about 0.178% of market cap, a level the engine flags as notable insider selling amid the stock's downtrend.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should moderate and the insider signal should move away from bearish over the next two quarters.
CounterInsiders often sell into weakness for tax or diversification reasons unrelated to their view of the business, especially at a level as small as 0.178% of market cap.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BWMN combines a strong earnings and cash-conversion track record with a confirmed technical downtrend and failed momentum gate, creating a split between fundamental strength and near-term price weakness.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.5 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.1 |
| Current ratio | 3.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 424% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 72%
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $892,646 (0.173% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 0.4 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:6.1>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.17%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
6.11
Upside
+49.6%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 29d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 6.11 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Value at 7.5, and Technical at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Peer rank at 3.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Cheap Valuation
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) in 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Momentum Failure
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.5 for more than 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Strong Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 4 out of 9 in the next reported quarter.
- P4Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $2 million over any rolling 90-day period.